Tigers v Saints (A) - Premiership - Saturday 20th April 2024 - KO: 15-05

[TigerFeetSteve]

Worth pointing out that Saints have not beaten us in a league match at Franklin's Gardens since before the pandemic.

In fact I think every visit since the pandemic has coincided with their annual fire drill...

There is a different sort of pressure on them as table toppers at home to "finally" get some bragging rights.

[westwinds31]

That's an interesting stat, let's hope that we're suitably fired up, in the style that we were in Dublin at couple of weeks ago. Concentration is going to be key and physicality needs to be off the chart to knock them off of their game.

[fentiger]

In fact I think every visit since the pandemic has coincided with their annual fire drill...

Very good, I well remember the LV Cup final at Worcester they were all off like scalded cats with 20 mins left!

[DeadlyDunc]

Oh for Nemzy - at his best - to play and put the fear of god in then once again

[ourla]

Worth pointing out that Saints have not beaten us in a league match at Franklin's Gardens since before the pandemic.

In fact I think every visit since the pandemic has coincided with their annual fire drill...

There is a different sort of pressure on them as table toppers at home to "finally" get some bragging rights.

As pointed put Saints have fixed their problems.

That said making the game "tasty" would be in our favour.

[Tigerbeat]

In the last six competitive 6 games that Saints have played, they have scored 214 points whilst also conceding 173 points. They have great attacking threats but are leaking points. Some of the teams they have played have a game of running rugby which will always carry risk and a looser defence. Slowing the play down and holding the defensive line will be key and winning at the breakdown.
As good as Saints have been playing, and they are rightly favourites, derby games sometimes bring out tight and enexpected results.
Here to a good game on Saturday!

[tigerburnie]

Referee: Christophe Ridley

Assistant Referees: Joe James & Jamie Leahy

TMO: Andrew Jackson

[sam16111986]

Worth pointing out that Saints have not beaten us in a league match at Franklin's Gardens since before the pandemic.

In fact I think every visit since the pandemic has coincided with their annual fire drill...

There is a different sort of pressure on them as table toppers at home to "finally" get some bragging rights.

As pointed put Saints have fixed their problems.

That said making the game "tasty" would be in our favour.

They've improved the scrum and defence that were their soft underbelly before. I'd still hope our scrum can do a job on them and with the injuries in the midfield the improvements seen in defence still hasn't seen it become a strength.

[TigerFeetSteve]

With our first choice tight 5 (excluding Henderson who is in the mix if he were not out for the season)

Cronin
Montoya
Cole/Heyes
Martin
Chessum

I would be disappointed if we didn't have ascendancy in the scrum... that is a tight 5 that can (especially if Cronin continues his Leinster form) cause troubles to most international tight 5's.

[Tiglon]

For all the talk of Saints impressive attack and fixed defence... they've only averaged 3 more points per prem match than us (and apparently we are clueless in attack), and they still have the 4th worst defence.

We have a better points difference than they do. Saints rightly favourites at home, but they are no better now than they were when we beat them at Welford Road.

[ourla]

Bookies have Saints at long odds on to win (range 4/9 to 2/7).

On handicap you can get Tigers +9 with odds of 10/11 so if you think we have a decent chance fill your boots.

[Tiglon]

Bookies have Saints at long odds on to win (range 4/9 to 2/7).

On handicap you can get Tigers +9 with odds of 10/11 so if you think we have a decent chance fill your boots.

Saints at 3/10 and Tigers at 5/2 means bookies have 35% chance Tigers win, 65% chance Saints win.

That's not long odds at all. It's saying that if the match is played 100 times, Tigers win it 35 times. Saints favourites, but still very possible that Tigers win.

Saracens are 1/20 to beat Glouc. That's long odds.

Bristol are 1/40 to beat Newcastle. That's very long odds.

[OakhamTiger32]

1. Cronin
2. Montoya
3. Cole
4. Martin
5. Chessum
6. Liebenberg
7. Reffell
8. Wiese
9. JvP
10. Pollard
11. OHC
12. Kelly
13. Kata
14. Steward
15. Shillcock

16. Clare
17. Whitcombe
18. Heyes
19. Wells
20. Cracknell
21. Youngs
22. Brown
23. Scott

[ourla]

Bookies have Saints at long odds on to win (range 4/9 to 2/7).

On handicap you can get Tigers +9 with odds of 10/11 so if you think we have a decent chance fill your boots.

Saints at 3/10 and Tigers at 5/2 means bookies have 35% chance Tigers win, 65% chance Saints win.

That's not long odds at all. It's saying that if the match is played 100 times, Tigers win it 35 times. Saints favourites, but still very possible that Tigers win.

Saracens are 1/20 to beat Glouc. That's long odds.

Bristol are 1/40 to beat Newcastle. That's very long odds.

As a former betting man I can say that most punters would regard a 3/10 shot as "long odds on".

I was interested because there were several posts about our record against them, that we may still be able to win the scrum battle, that they have only scored 3 points more per game - that suggested to my mind that outcome was at worst 50/50.

As you point out the match is far from a foregone conclusion - unlike the Saracens and Bristol games. But I would still say Saints are strong favourites to win and I don't share much of the optimism. I haven't seen the Leinster game though which might not help.

[ourla]

Also bearing in mind that for all the pre-game optimism in this thread on the McKeller thread his sacking is being openly discussed and I suspect will only intensify if we get a spanking from Saints and/or don't make top 4. Such is the fickle nature of sports fans.