Race for the top 4.

[TigerFeetSteve]

4 to play:

Saints 49
Bath 44
Sarries 42
Quins 42
Bristol 40
Exeter 40
Leicester 39
Sale 37

So top 8 all in the mix.

IF (and it's a huge IF) the top 8 win vs Glaws & Falcons.

There are 13 matches remaining between teams in the top 8.

Half of the teams will make the playoffs. So if we say those 8 teams won't share a draw the the odds say that the 8 teams will on average lose more than 1½ games out of 4. The 4 teams that beat those results will in all likelihood make the playoffs.

So 3 wins out of 4 will probably be enough, though with us and Sale having fewer bonus points I would say that we're not assured that 3 wins would be enough, but odds are still in the favour of teams who win 3 out of their last 4.

I think there's half a chance a team that goes 2-2 will also make it, though it would be unlikely to be us or Sale to make it in those circumstances, as we'd be needing Newcastle and Gloucester probably to do us some favours if we wanted to reach the playoffs with only 2 more wins.

[OakhamTiger32]

Tigers fixtures are:

Saints (A)
Bristol (H)
Sale (A)
Exeter (H)

Tough run in for Tigers for sure. Such a shame about that Glos game as I would fancy our chances a lot more if we had got that one over the line

[mol2]

Yes, the woeful performance at Welford Road will likely cost us dearly.

[TigerFeetSteve]

https://twitter.com/TightFive_Rugby/sta ... oAW9A&s=19

Wonder if Yeandle may be facing a ban for our game against them?

[ourla]

Will be a massive bonus if we make the play offs IMO.

This is a certainly a one game at a time scenario.

One good thing is a don't think we have too many distractions/players out.

Not going into the end of season with high expectations but just hoping for the best.

[RagingBull]

Looking at everyones fixture I don't think there is a single game I would call a easy win for anyone

[RagingBull]

Apparently Spencer and Russell are touch and go for this weekend, Russell potentially longer

[TigerFeetSteve]

https://x.com/premrugby/status/17802650 ... ggFgg&s=09

This is how oval insights have the top 4 race...

Wonder if those numbers were based on Russell being injured for Bath or not...

[Rugbygramps]

https://x.com/premrugby/status/17802650 ... ggFgg&s=09

This is how oval insights have the top 4 race...

Wonder if those numbers were based on Russell being injured for Bath or not...

Smith was hobbling after the Quins game too

[Tiglon]

https://x.com/premrugby/status/17802650 ... ggFgg&s=09

This is how oval insights have the top 4 race...

Wonder if those numbers were based on Russell being injured for Bath or not...

Can't argue too much with that, but if we beat Saints everything changes.

[RagingBull]

Redpath and Russell both sound like they will be out for potentially over a month
9. Spencer
10. Bailey
12. Ojomoh
13. Lawrence
Isn't a bad backline core but it's a lot more vulnerable

Bailey is talented but IMO not a natural 10 (Reminds me of Devoto honestly) and they are 1 win from 4 in the games he has started for them at 10

[TigerFeetSteve]

Saints 54pts
Bath 49
Sarries 47
Bristol 45
Quins 44
Sale 42
Exeter 40
Tigers 39

So now it's out of our hands.

x3 5-0 wins ensures us 5th place, but still highly likely to be 4th place...

Question is are we capable of getting 15 points from our last 3 games, our form at the moment says virtually definitely not...

[sapajo]

Saints 54pts
Bath 49
Sarries 47
Bristol 45
Quins 44
Sale 42
Exeter 40
Tigers 39

So now it's out of our hands.

x3 5-0 wins ensures us 5th place, but still highly likely to be 4th place...

Question is are we capable of getting 15 points from our last 3 games, our form at the moment says virtually definitely not...

Is the Pope Catholic?

[ads]

Bristol (H) - After this weekend, I cant see us beating Bristol.
Sale (A) - We don't win away at Sale.
Exeter (H) - Depends whats on the line for Exeter (playoff place may have gone by then), but thats probably the only game we have a chance at.

Looking at the games left to play, I can see the table being like this before the last game of the season (no bonus points have been included, 4 point wins only)

Saints 62pts
Sarries 55
Bath 53
Bristol 53
Quins 44
Sale 50
Exeter 48
Tigers 39
Gloucs 27
Newc 5

Euro Challenge cup for us next season. Edit for below message: looks like we'll sneak into the champions cup in 8th.

[Tigerbeat]

Top 8 qualify for Champions Cup