Exiles set for Exile?

[GB72]

The reason I say it is too simplistic to say "wages are too high" is because they are impacted by so many different things - and it's ever changing.

Look at it another way. If every player in the league took a 20%/30%/50% pay cut today would everything would be good again. What would the effect be. Would every club be profitable. Would the league be profitable.

That is a very fair point and I agree in that sense it is simplistic. My point is as well as it is based on a massive generalisation but the issue I have is the pipe dream (at the moment anyway) of increased revenues, this strong champtionship etc. I am being a pessimist but I cannot see TV money increasing massively, if at all. The Euopean matches are sought after a little but I am not really sure anyone is that fussed about showing live club rugby. The interest is in International rugby and that is pretty much it. The only way I can see the club game getting a better deal is if the rights are sold as part of a package wiht England matches, no money to the club game, no England match rights. That will never happen.

I also cannot see the crowds piling through the gates. Tickets are not really cheaper the for football, in fact they are not really cheap at all. That used to be the big thing for rugby, it was cheap to watch but not now. I honestly think crowds have peaked unless we win the world cup then you may get a leap.

Then you have the Championship. We want it to be competitive yet how can it be when most clubs cannot get 1000 people through the door every week. To be able to fund themselves in the premiership you need 5000 minimum and realitically 10000 plus to be competitive. That is not going to happen.

As you cannot really cut the match day running costs, the only thing that you can look at it wages and squad size. If you cut the wage bill by a couple of million quid a year, that would put most clubs into or near profit. The trouble is, as you point out about the wider picture, that could impact on attendance and revenue and have a negative effect.

There are no easy answers and I guess what I am doing is pointing at the historical problem, rugby could never afford to pay the players what it does now

[ourla]

I think many of us are feeling a bit pessimistic at this point.

I've never been particularly hard set on the central contract v France/England model or even ring-fenced or not debate. It's a bit like nationalised v privatised industries. How you do it is one thing, whether you do it well is another.

We've had 3 teams go to the wall and it seems the League couldn't do anything about it and have nobody ready to take their place. We've heard for years about clubs being loss making. Then we had the CVC deal. There just seems to be some really bad management going on there.

As with League pro or otherwise the teams in it are both competitors and allies.

[Roadsweeper]

Whether you like it or not rugby is a business. A simplistic analysis of any business/rugby club should look at the following.
History plays a part, in that it defines how your club entered professional rugby in 1995. Such as:
1. What was the internal structure of the club, owned or a trust type arrangement?
2. Did you own your own ground, were you a tenant, or on a short or long leasehold?
3. What was your playing strength?
4. What was your average crowd and how else did you generate revenue?

Moving on 30 years or so, the questions become:
1. Have you become beholden on shareholder loans or other loans to fund your operating expenditure?
2. Do you still own your own ground and if so have you taken out loans against its value or pledged it as security against the loans I mention above?
3. Can you service the interest on your loans?
4. Have been successful on the field and have you overspent on players (compared to operating income)?
5. Has you average crowd increased, so that operating revenue has gone up?
6. What do you use your TV money and the CVC money for?

There are many other factors unique to each premiership club, but history tells us that it is rare that once a club drops out of the top tier it makes it way back:
Orrell, Waterloo, West Hartlepool, Richmond, London Scottish, London welsh, Mosely etc failed to do so.

Saracens, Northampton, Bristol and Harlequins did and have survived.

London Irish have for a long time been living on borrowed money in a rented stadium. They have moved several times making building a fan base difficult and not really generating much in terms of additional matchday revenue.

They were beholden on the shareholder putting money in £30m in loans he will never see again. Emotionally I am sure he didn't want to see the club go down, but I imagine he had to draw the line somewhere.

To survive you have to stop the bleeding - generate more than you spend and not be beholden to an individual or corporate loan facility you can't pay the interest costs on or refinance.

Personally I think we are heading towards 5 or 6 English teams, and a British league.

[Rugbygramps]

Excellent post Roadsweeper and I agree with your point about British Leagues.

Again rugby clubs are business, and first aim of any business is to have more money coming in than going out

[GB72]

I can see a UK League. You could actually make a top quality set up from the Irish Provinces, the Welsh Regions, the 2 Scottish teams and the last men standing from the Prem. Lots of interesting away trips, call within reach, plenty of teams with strong home and away support, it just might work but there are issues. It would probably mean giving the SA teams their marching orders and you would have to untangle all the TV and sponsorship deals the URC have and, lastly, would the Irish teams be happy being in a league that was competitive week in week out so as their international players did not get the amount of rest that they get now.

An interesting discussion but I suspect one that will have to be had if we lose another prem team.

[Rugbygramps]

The point about the SA sides is interesting. A lot would come down to who needs who more. They stepped away from the Super Rugby competition, initially down to Covid, but a 12 team super pacific comp is working well.
Through geography alone the South African teams find themselves bit out on a limb, but financially and player welfare wise, it doesn’t seem to be working that well.
Maybe an African competition could be worked out including teams from Zimbabwe and Kenya for example

[johnthegriff]

Leicester, Newcastle, Saracens, Harlequins, Exeter, Gloucester, Northampton and Bristol all.own their own grounds, all.have invested heavily in them since our game became a professional sport, Bath and Sale could soon join us and would think an become self sufficient, there may well still be debt but hopefully manageable debt exceeded by the assets owned by the clubs. Worcester should have been ok but for the pandemic and the actions of irresponsible directors, Wasps and London Irish relied on funding plans that were never going to work without the goodwill of a super rich sugar daddy. Saracens could be in the same boat but the Wray family have.purchased a ground and appear to be there for the long term.
We have got to.have a second tier of clubs owning their own grounds, maybe not of the Welford Rd or Franklin's Gardens standard but ones that with time could develop to an acceptable Premiership, growth to be sustainable has to be gradual. Would Irish have been better off acquiring modest home ground instead of their training ground and then throwing money at the Majeski

[Tigersunited]

I was going to say "that is a bit defeatist/ott." but thinking more it's just a bit simplistic.

Ok, wages they can't afford, like deciding two "excluded players" was a good idea.

Ultimately, the point is wages are too high for the profile of the sport.

This I agree with and I for one do not think that it is being too defeatest. I really do think that without some dramatic changes, the Premiership could be in the last few years of existance. We lose one more club and you have to think that it is all over in the current format. You may then be left with 3-4 clubs with stabler finances and with enough fan appeal to be attractive to other leagues.

The problem is that the salary issue is a vicious circle that we are in at the moment. You develop a player in the academy and get great value, the player is then picked for England, you then see a massive increase in wage demands and the player is available less and so you need solid back up as well. You do not meet the wage demands, you lose the player to another club. You let them go and develop a replacement, they excel, they get picked for England and the circle continues.

Thing is, with crowds as they are and revenues as they exist, most rugby players should be on about £30k a year, similar to County Cricket. Who is going to put in the work and take the medical risks for that. Plus, if you pay what is realistic, players go abroad, the product on the pitch gets worse and then fans disappear. How would Tigers fans react if we got rid of our top half a dozen earners to be financially prudent and gave up on challenginf for honours.

I really cannot see a way that it works without the dreaded central contracts and a big reduction in the use of higher paid overseas players.

Can the rfu afford central contracts? Maybe if they scrap the PGA and use the money to fund them. Then the clubs are in serious trouble, so probably cut back on developing players and it becomes a vicious circle.
If they linked salary cap to central income all the clubs should be able to sustain themselves. The clubs with their own grounds then have more to invest in player development and coaching. Probably results in less overseas players coming in, smaller squads, but top english players stay here and get the England match fee. Players that wouldn’t make the grade find alternative employment or play in the championship.
No ideal solution but surely the start point is to cut cloth accordingly.

[Rugbygramps]

Leicester, Newcastle, Saracens, Harlequins, Exeter, Gloucester, Northampton and Bristol all.own their own grounds, all.have invested heavily in them since our game became a professional sport, Bath and Sale could soon join us and would think an become self sufficient, there may well still be debt but hopefully manageable debt exceeded by the assets owned by the clubs. Worcester should have been ok but for the pandemic and the actions of irresponsible directors, Wasps and London Irish relied on funding plans that were never going to work without the goodwill of a super rich sugar daddy. Saracens could be in the same boat but the Wray family have.purchased a ground and appear to be there for the long term.
We have got to.have a second tier of clubs owning their own grounds, maybe not of the Welford Rd or Franklin's Gardens standard but ones that with time could develop to an acceptable Premiership, growth to be sustainable has to be gradual. Would Irish have been better off acquiring modest home ground instead of their training ground and then throwing money at the Majeski

In theory your idea of a second tier all owning acceptable grounds is a sound one but in reality it isn’t going to happen. Only 6 of last seasons championship play in anything near what could be described as a stadium. Ampthill and Caldy are to all intense and purposes local clubs, London Scottish and Richmond play on park land etc.
Our own Leicester Lions are only 1 division below championship and you wouldn’t describe their excellent local facilities as being anywhere near acceptable
Without funding from central and local government, a pipe dream I know, to develop multi sport municipal stadium it isn’t going to happen I’m afraid

[johnthegriff]

Bath play on Park Land as did Saracens before they moved to Edmonton and then Watford.
There are.many non league football teams that may be happy to share with a rugby team and be a lot cheaper than the Majeski. Jersey has plans for a bigger stadium. Many Welsh teams have reasonable small grounds English teams could do the same given time. Doncaster has space to expand, Fylde I seem to remember has an existing stand and space. Darlington M P has a great stadium. Full time professional is not for all clubs but those with ambition there are possibilities if they take thing slowly and get the right support. I do think.a move to an English Welsh club league would make a second tier.viable.

[Rugbygramps]

Bath play on Park Land as did Saracens before they moved to Edmonton and then Watford.
There are.many non league football teams that may be happy to share with a rugby team and be a lot cheaper than the Majeski. Jersey has plans for a bigger stadium. Many Welsh teams have reasonable small grounds English teams could do the same given time. Doncaster has space to expand, Fylde I seem to remember has an existing stand and space. Darlington M P has a great stadium. Full time professional is not for all clubs but those with ambition there are possibilities if they take thing slowly and get the right support. I do think.a move to an English Welsh club league would make a second tier.viable.

Yes but for Bath there is currently a 10,000 plus spectator stadium on it.
JTG I’m afraid you’re scratching in the dirt, if you think a championship of clubs with grounds of even 5000 capacity within the next 10 years, will happen unless there is sudden dramatic upturn in fortunes.
You are right about welsh teams having reasonable grounds which is a throwback to the 80s when towns such as Pontypool, Bridgend , Aberavon etc all had reasonable stadium.
I do agree that a move to to a second tier English Welsh club league would be viable

[ourla]

If England can not support/manage a domestic league of their own then it's a pure management failure.

And I'd be very surprised if the RFU or the remaining clubs will let it happen.

I am not writing it off but just can't see it.

[loretta]

Personally wouldn’t be happy with a British league unless there was a standard salary cap across the board. And some institutions wouldn’t wear that!

[ads]

Far too much negativity in this thread regarding the future of Rugby Union in England. With the right marketing anything is possible, but we need good marketing and someone to drive it. The prem cup has been mentioned but I haven't seen too much about it. The clubs and the RFU need to be banging the drum, getting a few games on some random TV channel (there must be cheap ones) and getting some sponsors in.
My negativity is that I don't believe those making the decisions are the right people to be running the sport in a forward thinking way, but if they get the right people, then I still think a good, strong two tier english club game is possible. We have to start somewhere but it needs starting NOW!

[Grumpy of Crumbie]

As I said in a previous post my fear is a race to the bottom!

Money as always is the issue so bums on seats in stadiums or in front of TV’s is the only realistic way of increasing revenue. That comes from producing a better product and experience to draw in more interest.

Decreasing the salary cap and/or cutting wages can only result in the best players English or otherwise plying their trade elsewhere. That diminishes the English league and more importantly the continuing inability for English sides to compete in Europe where there is an opportunity for bumper pay days.

The slippery slope is clear to see it’s the steps to get back up that are more difficult. There are two models in France and Ireland that seem to be working for them but for various reasons may not work in England.

Watering down the quality and quantity has the danger of taking the English game down a path that has every chance of returning the sport to a semi-professional status! That decline has well and truly started with the likelihood of only 9 home league fixtures to look forward to next season.

I don’t know what the answer is but I do know that the only area where the sport generates a lot of income is at international level so in my view the starting point is to look at how that is spent! Something has to change and change quickly, a long drawn out review won’t address the immediate problem.