Treviso.

[Chobbsy]

I think I'd still expect Manu on the bench rather than starting as part of his phased return. He'll get more minutes I'm sure.

Who knows, maybe there'll be a first run out for JDV?

First run out of who? Is this person real? or did I dream him?

I agree get the 4 tries, ensure the win (unlike Saturday) then make all the changes

[LE18]

No not Camacho, pick Thomstone he had last week off v Sarries, Camacho shows no sign of any form.

Sorry is this a joke!? How can Camacho possibly have shown any signs of form!?

Ian and NorthernTiger

Please don't think I am totally anti Camacho but he played in Ayerza testimonial, he has had about 3 run outs in A team and a full game against Sarries plus weeks of training to get a bit of form, yes I know he has been injured but to me he is no longer an International player.

Each time I have seen him in those games I quoted he has stood out on the wing with his arm in the air waiting for a cross kick, isolated just like Ashton used to do, he has not gone seeking the ball or getting involved. Sorry but it's my opinion that we wasted money on him and he is not going to make it, please give us Odogu before Camacho.

Compare that to Manu, he has had no game time whatsoever but when he came on on Saturday, he showed immediately his class after being out for ages, no Camacho just does not do it for me, even when he was with Argentina.

[Iain]

I see. So you have no idea what form is.

And for what it's worth, Camacho played very well in the testimonial and looked positive on the rare occasions he had any ball to play with at the Allianz.

Quite how you can make a judgement call on his form, or Manu's for that matter, is baffling.

[LE18]

Ok Iain, after watching rugby for goodness knows how many years I am no judge of a players ability? Surely you can see Manu' s class after just those few minutes? Camacho shows nothing like that in his few appearances, and no one has really explained why, if he is so good, Exeter let him go?

[Iain]

I'm saying you have literally no idea of what form is.

Manu was excellent in his 25 minutes on Saturday, yes. This does not demonstrate his form.

I disagree with you on Camacho. We saw plenty against Argentina and flashes where possible against Saracens that show the quality he possesses. This too does no demonstrate form.

And I too have been watching rugby for goodness knows how many years. It's just I understand what form is.

[Bowden Tiger]

I am caught in two minds on selection, but common sense tells me to go to our strongest side to start with. Treviso are no mugs and have some good players. If we don't respect them, and select a back up side, they could easily gain in confidence and we could struggle. I am not saying we would lose, but 5 points is an absolute must!
Win the game, get the bonus point and then bring on the replacements, Camacho, Crane, etc.

I would also start with Croft, as Saturday was the first time this season he has looked his old self. He must be getting back to full fitness, and he looked to be playing with confidence.

[4071]

Tigers must treat Treviso with respect and field a team strong enough to earn 5 points this Saturday. I know the temptation is to rest our star players and field an understrength team, but we must remember that we have to finish first or second seeds for the quarter finals, so if we do end up having to play Leinster or Toulon at least it will be at Welford road.

Top four seeds play at home, not just the top two. And the SFs are a random draw.

AS things stand, the seeding is:

1. Saracens 19 pts, 21 tries
2. Leicester 18 pts, 14 tries
3. Racing 17 pts, 13 tries
4. Clermont 14 pts, 14 tries
-
5. Wasps 14 pts, 11 tries
6. Stade 14 pts*, 19 tries
7. Ulster 13 pts*, 11 tries
8. Ospreys 12 pts*, 10 tries

9. Toulon 12 pts*, 5 tries

A BP win all but guarantees a home quarter final, but even a 4-point win should be enough with home QF challengers Wasps, Stade and Ulster all playing away in round 5.

Stade beating Munster away would make things pretty nervous though, on account of their still being in the running to top our group.

[Bleaklow]

AS things stand, the seeding is:

1. Saracens 19 pts, 21 tries
2. Leicester 18 pts, 14 tries
3. Racing 17 pts, 13 tries
4. Clermont 14 pts, 14 tries
5. Wasps 14 pts, 11 tries
6. Stade 14 pts*, 19 tries
7. Ulster 13 pts*, 11 tries
8. Ospreys 12 pts*, 10 tries

9. Toulon 12 pts*, 5 tries

Correction. Wasps should be seeded 4 and Clermont seeded 5. Wasps have a +77 points difference whilst Clermont have +38. See Section 2.3 (c) (i) here.

And the SFs are a random draw.

Correction. See Section 2.4 in the link above.

[Grimlish]

To get a home draw in the quarters you have to finish top of your pool. So, it is easy to envisage a scenario where we win this week, even with a bonus point, and still find ourselves without a home draw....

[Bleaklow]

So, it is easy to envisage a scenario where we win this week, even with a bonus point, and still find ourselves without a home draw....

Stade Français would have to get 5 point wins away to Munster and home to Leicester whilst denying us any points for this to happen. That is not a scenario I can easily envisage.

[loretta]

With Munster v Stade kicking off at 1.00, there'll be plenty of notice of what we need before we hit the pitch. There may well be some late changes to the declared squad if the result at Thomond Park require them.

[LE18]

Loretta, just think you made the case for all matches kicking off at the same time. No I am not going to say day and time, what for it!

[Bleaklow]

As I mentioned yesterday, the format for the semi-finals has changed and it's no longer the luck of drawing balls out of a bag. It now recognises performances by clubs in the pool stages and the achievement of winning away in the quarter finals.

Let's assume the current seedings are the final ones. Therefore the quarter finals would be:

QF1 - Saracens (1) v Ospreys (8)
QF2 - Wasps (4) v Clermont (5)
QF3 - Racing 92 (3) v Stade Français (6)
QF4 - Tigers (2) v Ulster (7)

The semi finals would be:

SF1 - QF1 winner v QF2 winner
SF2 - QF3 winner v QF4 winner

Now the interesting bit:

For SF1
If Saracens & Wasps win, Saracens have home nation advantage
If Saracens & Clermont win, Clermont have home nation advantage
If Ospreys & Wasps win, Ospreys have home nation advantage
If Ospreys & Clermont win, Clermont have home nation advantage

For SF2
If Racing 92 & Tigers win, Tigers have home nation advantage
If Racing 92 & Ulster win, Ulster have home nation advantage
If Stade Français & Tigers win, Stade Français have home nation advantage
If Stade Français & Ulster win, Stade Français have home nation advantage

[MrPartridge]

Stade Français would have to get 5 point wins away to Munster and home to Leicester whilst denying us any points for this to happen. That is not a scenario I can easily envisage.

I don't think this is 'strictly' correct. SF can still win the group with 4 points in Munster. See my next post below.

[MrPartridge]

I posted this earlier in the week on the ECC thread but am moving it across. Great work by 4071 and Bleaklow by the way on working out the ECC rules for the QF and SF… a BIG change this year…

From my deductions, the general rules (ASSUMING WE BEAT TREVISO WITH TBP and therefore move onto 23 points) are:

1. Our QF place is guaranteed with 23 points
2. If SF FAIL TO BEAT Munster we win the group
3. If Tigers and SF end up on 24 points each we will win the group
4. If Tigers and SF end up on 23 points each it gets messy, but as long as we lose by 12 or less in Paris then we will win the group
5. At this stage, we need 25 points to be certain of a home QF. However, 23 (see 4 above) or 24 will be enough, if Toulon win at home to Wasps.

Thereafter, other here have neatly explained the QF and SF arrangements.

On the SF side of things… I'm not sure a team winning away in their QF should gain home field advantage. Not least as there is a 75% chance the away QF-alists did not win their group!

I know some people don't like NFL, NBA etc but in my opinion they seed the playoffs right and the teams with the best 2 records stay at home until they reach the final. You can just see Toulon getting jammy here, winning their QF away and getting a home semi! If I'm honest I'd like to play them home in the QF as that will unquestionably be our best chance to stop their run.