Will we finish in the top 4?

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TheCat
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Re: Will we finish in the top 4?

Post by TheCat »

So I’m going for two x 4 point wins for Tigers in the last couple of games, think that will still only be good enough for 3rd. Think Sale will get 9 points from their three games. Top 4:-

Saracens
Sale
Tigers
Exeter

Cat
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Re: Will we finish in the top 4?

Post by ads »

We're due a good performance up at Sale, would be great if we got it for the semi.
Pellsey
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Re: Will we finish in the top 4?

Post by Pellsey »

After today's performance and looking at Sale's form, I think the top 4 will be:

Sarries
Tigers
Sale
LI

I will go out on a whim and guess that Tigers will win both remaining games and Sale will lose against Bristol and Gloucs, but beat the Falcons.
Rugbygramps
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Re: Will we finish in the top 4?

Post by Rugbygramps »

Pellsey wrote: Sat Mar 25, 2023 6:09 pm After today's performance and looking at Sale's form, I think the top 4 will be:

Sarries
Tigers
Sale
LI

I will go out on a whim and guess that Tigers will win both remaining games and Sale will lose against Bristol and Gloucs, but beat the Falcons.
Be nice if Bristol can do us a favour in 3 weeks.
TigerFeetSteve
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Re: Will we finish in the top 4?

Post by TigerFeetSteve »

Pellsey wrote: Sat Mar 25, 2023 6:09 pm After today's performance and looking at Sale's form, I think the top 4 will be:

Sarries
Tigers
Sale
LI

I will go out on a whim and guess that Tigers will win both remaining games and Sale will lose against Bristol and Gloucs, but beat the Falcons.
Think if Exeter win tomorrow, they are well in the hunt too...
Used to run around with an 11, 14 or 15 on my back.
Pellsey
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Re: Will we finish in the top 4?

Post by Pellsey »

TigerFeetSteve wrote: Sat Mar 25, 2023 7:31 pm
Pellsey wrote: Sat Mar 25, 2023 6:09 pm After today's performance and looking at Sale's form, I think the top 4 will be:

Sarries
Tigers
Sale
LI

I will go out on a whim and guess that Tigers will win both remaining games and Sale will lose against Bristol and Gloucs, but beat the Falcons.
Think if Exeter win tomorrow, they are well in the hunt too...
This was just my prediction, but Exeter definitely could get 4th as could Sale get 2nd by beating either Gloucs or Bristol, but I think Bristol will rebound against them. Just a gut feeling, but I could be very wrong! I don't think we can get lower than 3rd (we would have to lose the plot quite a bit from our current form!)
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Re: Will we finish in the top 4?

Post by ads »

TigerFeetSteve wrote: Sat Mar 25, 2023 7:31 pm
Pellsey wrote: Sat Mar 25, 2023 6:09 pm After today's performance and looking at Sale's form, I think the top 4 will be:

Sarries
Tigers
Sale
LI

I will go out on a whim and guess that Tigers will win both remaining games and Sale will lose against Bristol and Gloucs, but beat the Falcons.
Think if Exeter win tomorrow, they are well in the hunt too...
We've got Exeter at home though, so win that and we knock them back a bit.
KiwiTig
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Re: Will we finish in the top 4?

Post by KiwiTig »

Still say yes
mol2
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Re: Will we finish in the top 4?

Post by mol2 »

The contenders with the potential to knock us out of the top four have diminished.
With Exeter being one, we need to beat them and we should be safe.
Rugbygramps
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Re: Will we finish in the top 4?

Post by Rugbygramps »

mol2 wrote: Sun Mar 26, 2023 1:18 pm The contenders with the potential to knock us out of the top four have diminished.
With Exeter being one, we need to beat them and we should be safe.
Agreed especially if they win today at Bath.
Of the 2 league games to come I think Exeter will be the more difficult
TigerFeetSteve
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Re: Will we finish in the top 4?

Post by TigerFeetSteve »

As the contenders are knocked out of the top 4 race, the top 8 race (i.e. race for champions cup) gets more influential, we could really do without one of the teams who lost at the weekend getting distanced
Used to run around with an 11, 14 or 15 on my back.
ay2oh
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Re: Will we finish in the top 4?

Post by ay2oh »

Don’t understand your concerns. As long as we qualify for Champions Cup which is highly probable if not definite who cares ?
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TigerFeetSteve
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Re: Will we finish in the top 4?

Post by TigerFeetSteve »

ay2oh wrote: Sun Mar 26, 2023 1:52 pm Don’t understand your concerns. As long as we qualify for Champions Cup which is highly probable if not definite who cares ?
Not concerned about that, but if say in the next round of games a team gets distanced in 9th it may make teams in 6th to 8th & the one in 9th take their foot off the gas for the season early meaning a few curveball results pop up which could hamper us.
Used to run around with an 11, 14 or 15 on my back.
DeadlyDunc
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Re: Will we finish in the top 4?

Post by DeadlyDunc »

Can see Quins playing loose and free if their season is done by the final game - unfortunately that probably suits them so that could be a tough game if it’s a freebie for them
TigerFeetSteve
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Re: Will we finish in the top 4?

Post by TigerFeetSteve »

TigerFeetSteve wrote: Thu Mar 23, 2023 10:29 am Just been doing some maths, (I'm weird like that)

I think having run the permutations. I have been looking at the permutations for the league, mainly on what it needed to reach the playoffs.


Lowest possible score to reach playoffs:
Tigers, Bristol, & Saints all have a mathematical way of getting into the playoffs with 49 points.


Highest possible score that could miss playoffs, it is possible that 3 teams can tie on 60 points for 4th so two of Tigers, Quins & Exeter could miss out getting 60.

As games go by this window will narrow, but if these are the extremes it is likely that somewhere in the middle will be where it sits. Looking at the permutations and their liklihood, I'd guess just over halfway at 56/57 will most likely get the last Semifinal spot
Having run the updated numbers from this weekend


59 points is assured top 4 (58 can only be eliminated on points difference)

With 51 points it is possible for London Irish to already have enough points.
Used to run around with an 11, 14 or 15 on my back.
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