A statistical comparison of the last 2 seasons

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kpj tiger
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A statistical comparison of the last 2 seasons

Post by kpj tiger »

So I've put together some useful statistics to try and see a clearer picture of where we are currently at

Image

Its hard to read too much into the results statistics as they have been effected by Covid results but there is obvious improvements there.

The scoring stats are where things really get interesting, A near 30% increase in points scored is pretty impressive considering the lack of attack coach and the disruption to the team across the whole season while a 20% decrease in points conceded points to the good work of Mike Ford and Aled (whose fitness gains have been a massive part of our defensive improvements imo).

A 45% increase in tries scored might be surprising considering we have no attack coach but then when you see that nearly 70% of our tries came from the forwards it does show both the strength of our pack but also the fact that we are pretty one dimensional.

The bonus point stats surprised me as I thought we would have conceded less try bonuses this season although there is a noticeable improvement, we conceded 50% more losing bonuses but that is probably just a reflection of winning more games, I was also surprised to see we only got 1 more losing bonus point compared to last season but I think we were only 1 score away from securing 3 more. After a quick check we also finished with 3 tries in 6 games so we potentially missed out on a total of 9 points which would have left us on 63 points and 1 place higher in the table.

Overall we seem to have improved in every department to various degrees which is encouraging with the obvious exception of finishing 9th for tries scored and dead last in the table for backs tries which is frankly embarrassing. If we manage to get a good attack coach and then carry on with the same incremental improvements everywhere else it shouldn't be unrealistic to be able to push for top 4 next season IMO.
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Re: A statistical comparison of the last 2 seasons

Post by Big Dai »

kpj tiger wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 7:10 pm So I've put together some useful statistics to try and see a clearer picture of where we are currently at

Image

Its hard to read too much into the results statistics as they have been effected by Covid results but there is obvious improvements there.

The scoring stats are where things really get interesting, A near 30% increase in points scored is pretty impressive considering the lack of attack coach and the disruption to the team across the whole season while a 20% decrease in points conceded points to the good work of Mike Ford and Aled (whose fitness gains have been a massive part of our defensive improvements imo).

A 45% increase in tries scored might be surprising considering we have no attack coach but then when you see that nearly 70% of our tries came from the forwards it does show both the strength of our pack but also the fact that we are pretty one dimensional.

The bonus point stats surprised me as I thought we would have conceded less try bonuses this season although there is a noticeable improvement, we conceded 50% more losing bonuses but that is probably just a reflection of winning more games, I was also surprised to see we only got 1 more losing bonus point compared to last season but I think we were only 1 score away from securing 3 more. After a quick check we also finished with 3 tries in 6 games so we potentially missed out on a total of 9 points which would have left us on 63 points and 1 place higher in the table.

Overall we seem to have improved in every department to various degrees which is encouraging with the obvious exception of finishing 9th for tries scored and dead last in the table for backs tries which is frankly embarrassing. If we manage to get a good attack coach and then carry on with the same incremental improvements everywhere else it shouldn't be unrealistic to be able to push for top 4 next season IMO.
I did a similar analysis "When we were good and winning stuff". Nice to know others are equally as sad. (Joke 😂😂)

From memory I think somthing like 65% of our tries came fom the forwards then. Especially 7. Of the backs there was a figure who scored regularly..... But he was built like a forward anyway.
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Re: A statistical comparison of the last 2 seasons

Post by Scott1 »

Excellent work!
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Re: A statistical comparison of the last 2 seasons

Post by RichieB »

Hmm, interesting stats. Good work there. It is clear that the focus is very much on the improvement of the forwards. Begs the question - tactically - are you only as strong as your weakest link (arguably the backs) or do you go for even more dominance in the forwards?

I guess we might find out if there is any further recruitment and the quality of such.
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Re: A statistical comparison of the last 2 seasons

Post by TigerFeetSteve »

RichieB wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 9:22 pm Hmm, interesting stats. Good work there. It is clear that the focus is very much on the improvement of the forwards. Begs the question - tactically - are you only as strong as your weakest link (arguably the backs) or do you go for even more dominance in the forwards?

I guess we might find out if there is any further recruitment and the quality of such.
I think you're only as strong as your weakest link in defence. I don't think our backs are weak in defence other thanmaybe raw pace. In attack we have the ball we choose how we want to use it so can play to our strengths, yes opposition can better prepare if they think that you are one dimensional.
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Re: A statistical comparison of the last 2 seasons

Post by Bunchy »

Great analysis - love it.

i had a chat with Steve Borthwick about coaching - his view to me was that there is too much emphasis that attack is the attack coaches responsibility, and defence is the defence coach etc. he pointed to the union of all the coaches in every aspect of the game plan and its development.
His obvious example was that Aled Walters plays a part in all areas - his work encompasses getting players in the right state physically and mentally for all aspects of the game.
He has selected his coaches for next season which tells me he is happy with them - i think we get behind them and stop the calling for a new attack coach........
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Re: A statistical comparison of the last 2 seasons

Post by TigerFeetSteve »

Bunchy wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 10:29 am Great analysis - love it.

i had a chat with Steve Borthwick about coaching - his view to me was that there is too much emphasis that attack is the attack coaches responsibility, and defence is the defence coach etc. he pointed to the union of all the coaches in every aspect of the game plan and its development.
His obvious example was that Aled Walters plays a part in all areas - his work encompasses getting players in the right state physically and mentally for all aspects of the game.
He has selected his coaches for next season which tells me he is happy with them - i think we get behind them and stop the calling for a new attack coach........
When did you chat to him? Did he say definitively that all the coaches chosen by him are in place & fully announced to the fans?
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Re: A statistical comparison of the last 2 seasons

Post by Bunchy »

I chatted with him a month ago (ish) - he said his coaching structure was confirmed but went short of naming names (Sinfield and Ford not mentioned)

I am thinking all confirmed due to the fact that we have confirmed attack, Scrum, defence and conditioning.....

Announced on this website?
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Re: A statistical comparison of the last 2 seasons

Post by TigerFeetSteve »

Bunchy wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 10:54 am I chatted with him a month ago (ish) - he said his coaching structure was confirmed but went short of naming names (Sinfield and Ford not mentioned)

I am thinking all confirmed due to the fact that we have confirmed attack, Scrum, defence and conditioning.....

Announced on this website?
Well that's one of the reasons I asked.

This was the quote from the clubs statement.
Smith joined Borthwick’s coaching team on an interim basis in November 2020 and will continue in the role as Assistant Coach for the senior squad.
Harrison was announced as scrum coach, Matt Smith was announced as assistant coach, not an attack coach, so what we have confirmed is

Head (Borthwick), defence (Sinfield), conditioning (Walters), forwards (Deacon), scrum (Harrison).

So we don't know the remit of Smith, is he backs coach or attack coach. Or something different?
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Re: A statistical comparison of the last 2 seasons

Post by johnthegriff »

I appreciate the hard work that went into producing the statistics but I cannot see where a factor was included to allow for matches played in season 19/20 when 75% of our first team were absent due to the world cup or an allowance made for Borthwick selecting non competitive teams as he examined his squad. I look forward to seeing these stats produced at the end of next season when we will truly see the improvement pathway.from 20/21 to 21/22 .
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Re: A statistical comparison of the last 2 seasons

Post by Bunchy »

TigerFeetSteve wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 11:04 am
Bunchy wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 10:54 am I chatted with him a month ago (ish) - he said his coaching structure was confirmed but went short of naming names (Sinfield and Ford not mentioned)

I am thinking all confirmed due to the fact that we have confirmed attack, Scrum, defence and conditioning.....

Announced on this website?
Well that's one of the reasons I asked.

This was the quote from the clubs statement.
Smith joined Borthwick’s coaching team on an interim basis in November 2020 and will continue in the role as Assistant Coach for the senior squad.
Harrison was announced as scrum coach, Matt Smith was announced as assistant coach, not an attack coach, so what we have confirmed is

Head (Borthwick), defence (Sinfield), conditioning (Walters), forwards (Deacon), scrum (Harrison).

So we don't know the remit of Smith, is he backs coach or attack coach. Or something different?
They are all described as assistant coaches - suspect (but can't be sure) that this is in the wording.

Harrison and Smith’s new deals see the pair continue in their roles alongside Brett Deacon and the newly-appointed Kevin Sinfield, as well as Head of Physical Performance Aled Walters, as assistant coaches to Steve Borthwick from next season.

He was definitely previously mentioned as attack coach.
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Re: A statistical comparison of the last 2 seasons

Post by Scott1 »

I'm slightly worried if we are not getting a proper attack coach in
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Re: A statistical comparison of the last 2 seasons

Post by jgriffin »

A comparison with 2011 would be instructive.....a decade on.
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Re: A statistical comparison of the last 2 seasons

Post by Noggs »

johnthegriff wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 11:11 am I appreciate the hard work that went into producing the statistics but I cannot see where a factor was included to allow for matches played in season 19/20 when 75% of our first team were absent due to the world cup or an allowance made for Borthwick selecting non competitive teams as he examined his squad. I look forward to seeing these stats produced at the end of next season when we will truly see the improvement pathway.from 20/21 to 21/22 .
I agree. With all the mitigating factor in the last 2 seasons stat comparisons at the moment are fairly meaningless. That said we have seen significant progress under the watch of SB and I am looking forward to next seasons's ongoing improvements. :smt023
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Re: A statistical comparison of the last 2 seasons

Post by wormus »

kpj tiger wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 7:10 pm So I've put together some useful statistics to try and see a clearer picture of where we are currently at

Image

Its hard to read too much into the results statistics as they have been effected by Covid results but there is obvious improvements there.

The scoring stats are where things really get interesting, A near 30% increase in points scored is pretty impressive considering the lack of attack coach and the disruption to the team across the whole season while a 20% decrease in points conceded points to the good work of Mike Ford and Aled (whose fitness gains have been a massive part of our defensive improvements imo).

A 45% increase in tries scored might be surprising considering we have no attack coach but then when you see that nearly 70% of our tries came from the forwards it does show both the strength of our pack but also the fact that we are pretty one dimensional.

The bonus point stats surprised me as I thought we would have conceded less try bonuses this season although there is a noticeable improvement, we conceded 50% more losing bonuses but that is probably just a reflection of winning more games, I was also surprised to see we only got 1 more losing bonus point compared to last season but I think we were only 1 score away from securing 3 more. After a quick check we also finished with 3 tries in 6 games so we potentially missed out on a total of 9 points which would have left us on 63 points and 1 place higher in the table.

Overall we seem to have improved in every department to various degrees which is encouraging with the obvious exception of finishing 9th for tries scored and dead last in the table for backs tries which is frankly embarrassing. If we manage to get a good attack coach and then carry on with the same incremental improvements everywhere else it shouldn't be unrealistic to be able to push for top 4 next season IMO.
So have you really added your cv to this analysis and submitted it as the replacement for the departing Simon Barbour Head of Analysis ???? :smt002
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