ANOTHER WAVE OF COVID 19?

[AngusMcCoatup]

Guernsey is going to be practically out of lockdown soon, and in the next couple of weeks we'll see more and more kids trickle back into primary school as well as more schools opening.

Great news for Peter Tom he can get up to the Pub and buy is family and friends a few pints in the sunny weather..

[Mark62]

Guernsey is going to be practically out of lockdown soon, and in the next couple of weeks we'll see more and more kids trickle back into primary school as well as more schools opening.

Great news for Peter Tom he can get up to the Pub and buy is family and friends a few pints in the sunny weather..

Thought he lived on Jersey

[AngusMcCoatup]

Guernsey is going to be practically out of lockdown soon, and in the next couple of weeks we'll see more and more kids trickle back into primary school as well as more schools opening.

Great news for Peter Tom he can get up to the Pub and buy is family and friends a few pints in the sunny weather..

Thought he lived on Jersey

Peter lives on Guernsey the "Premier Island!" ~ Guernsey for intellectuals, Jersey for sand & booze,
Sark for the romantics & tiny prison, Brecqhou for the D Telegraph, Herm for the beach & who wants to go to Alderney & Jethou?

Yes there was a Tigers news of Guernsey summer camps there, https://www.leicestertigers.com/news/ti ... -community

Where is the old travel expert "Noddy?" who was so regular on this site months ago when he is needed?? Once a Try Line clubber.
Well done Guernsey for being Covid 19 free. (back on track! )

[h's dad]

Where is the old travel expert "Noddy?" who was so regular on this site months ago when he is needed?? Once a Try Line clubber.
Well done Guernsey for being Covid 19 free. (back on track! )

Noddy hasn't posted for just over two years and he used to put out about 10 posts a week. I fear it doesn't bode well. I know we have GDPR and all that but I wonder if a mod or any insider could check on his tryline status or anything?

[Cagey Tiger]

Where is the old travel expert "Noddy?" who was so regular on this site months ago when he is needed?? Once a Try Line clubber.
Well done Guernsey for being Covid 19 free. (back on track! )

Noddy hasn't posted for just over two years and he used to put out about 10 posts a week. I fear it doesn't bode well. I know we have GDPR and all that but I wonder if a mod or any insider could check on his tryline status or anything?

From a post by johnthegriff on 9/1/19:

"Welcome back Mark62 hope you enjoyed your holiday! For those concerned I am please to say I saw Noddy at the Harlequins game, he was well but no longer a member of the Try Line Club. It was good to see him mixing with us lesser mortals, hope he resumes his contributions to this forum even if it is unlikely he will post anything I agree with, I do miss the other world he lives in."

[johnthegriff]

I would also comment that I have seen Noddy once since then at a game this year.
Seeing the note above about Guernsey Summer Camps reminded me of Lancaster school trips organised by Van Hopkins where we stayed in a former German army billet on Rocquaine Bay. If I remember correctly it cost £13.00 for two weeks including coach and ferry travel, breakfast and evening meals plus a packed lunch (spam sandwiches) and trips to many different bays and beaches, visits to Sark and Herm, the underground hospital, flower festival and many other delights.
As a sign of different times two years after I had left Lancaster Boys to go to Moat Boys, Hoppo asked me to holiday with Lancaster to be responsible for the swimming as no member of the Lancaster staff prepared to go on the trip was considered sufficiently competent in the water. I did go and aged fifteen was supervising evening swimming from a harbour wall nearby, other schools stopping at the same camp let their pupils go as well, whilst staff went to the pub. Fortunately there was no accidents, an inquest could have been embarrassing.

[h's dad]

Thank you JtG and Cagey. I am slightly surprised at how pleased I am to hear this news.

[kk20gb30]

The place does carry childhood memories for many.Good to reminisce in these times....

[drc_007]

I also rather suspect that the actual number of cases is way more than the published figures. I know of 20 or so people who have had an illness that presented with covid symptoms in the last couple of months. Only one of those was actually tested, so only she will appear as an official victim. Now, I realise that this is not really a scientific sample, but if you extrapolate that to the UK, you get a significant percentage of the population who had had it and are possibly immune.
I suspect, that rather than the somewhat hysterical 'second wave', the virus will subside and we will be still locked down for no real reason.
I also agree with some of the posters above. If you are healthy and under 55, the statisics show you are under not much more risk than daily living.

True. However, you may be a risk to others. I agree with trendy's post (above)

Data from a couple cruise ships which have acted as floating labs suggests up to 80% of cases may be asymptomatic. It will be interesting to see the results from the antibody screening, this may give an idea of the exposure among the population. However it should be noted that the presence of antibodies has not yet been shown to confer immunity, nor do we now how long they will last.

[jgriffin]

I also rather suspect that the actual number of cases is way more than the published figures. I know of 20 or so people who have had an illness that presented with covid symptoms in the last couple of months. Only one of those was actually tested, so only she will appear as an official victim. Now, I realise that this is not really a scientific sample, but if you extrapolate that to the UK, you get a significant percentage of the population who had had it and are possibly immune.
I suspect, that rather than the somewhat hysterical 'second wave', the virus will subside and we will be still locked down for no real reason.
I also agree with some of the posters above. If you are healthy and under 55, the statisics show you are under not much more risk than daily living.

True. However, you may be a risk to others. I agree with trendy's post (above)

Data from a couple cruise ships which have acted as floating labs suggests up to 80% of cases may be asymptomatic. It will be interesting to see the results from the antibody screening, this may give an idea of the exposure among the population. However it should be noted that the presence of antibodies has not yet been shown to confer immunity, nor do we now how long they will last.

The 80% figure is holding up in other research, and results from Institute Pasteur suggest vigorous antibody activity in 99% of all asymptomatic I.e dead virus.

[chewbacca]

Unfortunately immunity is more complex than merely producing antibodies to the virus. I would expect those who have died almost certainly had antibodies but perhaps were deficient in other essential components of the immune response such as killer T-cells.

[biffer]

Even on April 7th at the height of this, less than 30% of hospital beds in London (and far fewer across the country as a whole) were taken up by Covid-19 patients, and that's not including all the extra beds created in nightingale hospitals of which hardly any were ever used.

The NHS is not, and has not been, overrun with this. There are hospitals all around the country that are mostly empty. A friend of mine is a hospital nurse who hasn't seen a single patient of any kind for 4 weeks.

When did we all forget that the media is full of hyperbole and out of context facts? If there are photos of exhausted looking NHS staff, it's because NHS staff are always exhausted. Try working their shift patterns in a broken organisation and see how you feel - it isn't due to Covid-19, it's just how the NHS is.

Yes, there is an awful virus out there and we should be very cautious in how we deal with it. But no, this isn't the apocalypse, we aren't going to run out of beds or ventilators or dried pasta or anything else, and a healthy people aren't going to start dropping like flies if we all start living again.

Rugby shouldn't need to be treated any differently than other sports, and football seems to be doing just fine in Germany. It's hard to see how there could now be time to finish this season, but I can't see why next season shouldn't be played.

It wasn't overrun because we locked down. That 30% is what was there two weeks after we locked down - i.e. that's the number of cases we had with an uncontorlled epidemic in its early stage. If it had been allowed to continue unabated, the NHS would most definitely have become overrun.

[Wayne Richardson Fan Club]

At present the "R" value is rather high, it won't take much for the doors to be shut again.
If only I had more confidence in our leadership.
I am not worried for myself but for others, I am lucky in that I can & am working from home, I am still as much as possible trying to follow lockdown procedures, not for me but for others, I won't be rushing out to the shops when they open, I have things far higher on my return to normal bucket list.

[jgriffin]

May well be second wave arriving in South.

[chewbacca]

May well be second wave arriving in South.

I wouldn't be surprised, further waves are inevitable as we have no immunity. Latest population survey estimates 7% of the population have been infected. Generally circa 70% infection is thought to be necessary for herd immunity to be effective, if indeed herd immunity is a possibility for this virus. As between 38k(confirmed cases) and 66k(Excess deaths all causes) people have died since March the prospect of the same rate being maintained as we ease restrictions before 70% are infected or we have effective vaccines and/or treatments augers a grim toll over the next months and years.