ANOTHER WAVE OF COVID 19?

[JP14]

I know we have had some recent disagreements Tiglon but that is an excellent post and I agree fully .

[loretta]

Even on April 7th at the height of this, less than 30% of hospital beds in London (and far fewer across the country as a whole) were taken up by Covid-19 patients, and that's not including all the extra beds created in nightingale hospitals of which hardly any were ever used.

The NHS is not, and has not been, overrun with this. There are hospitals all around the country that are mostly empty. A friend of mine is a hospital nurse who hasn't seen a single patient of any kind for 4 weeks.

When did we all forget that the media is full of hyperbole and out of context facts? If there are photos of exhausted looking NHS staff, it's because NHS staff are always exhausted. Try working their shift patterns in a broken organisation and see how you feel - it isn't due to Covid-19, it's just how the NHS is.

Yes, there is an awful virus out there and we should be very cautious in how we deal with it. But no, this isn't the apocalypse, we aren't going to run out of beds or ventilators or dried pasta or anything else, and a healthy people aren't going to start dropping like flies if we all start living again.

Rugby shouldn't need to be treated any differently than other sports, and football seems to be doing just fine in Germany. It's hard to see how there could now be time to finish this season, but I can't see why next season shouldn't be played.

A lot of what you say has the ring of truth Tiglon. But I thought I'd add this.

I work in the NHS also, but my department is not front line when dealing with respiratory or ICU. In my department, we cannot maintain distancing when dealing with patients, and didn't have the PPE. Therefore, we have closed, we're doing as much as we can without patients and essentially awaiting re-deployment. I have not seen any Covid patients, have not been needed to work elsewhere and my day is alternately pretty dull or frustrating without being able to do my job properly.

However, I do know a member of staff who has been working on Covid wards who says that the situation has been horrendous. She has contracted Covid, despite PPE and has now, thankfully recovered. Hundreds of Covid patients have died at the LRI. Life in the NHS at the moment is at one pole or the other. Absolutely full on, or revving in neutral.

Yes, in normal circumstances, life working in the NHS can be hectic and incredibly stressful and I won't start on how it's been treated in the last 10+ years, but these times are exceptional. Other wards have been turned over to Covid patients and been used. The fallout from all the "normal" activities being suspended will be huge.The backlog for all the other stuff we do is going to last for years and I really feel for the patients who have had to have their treatment delayed.

We have had over-capacity in the country. Nightingale wards have not been packed. But that's the right way round isn't it? Lockdown measures have worked, and the national caseload has been kept within the created capacity, but at a cost. Without them? I shudder to think.

[Wayne Richardson Fan Club]

Hospitals are "quiet" as people are avoiding going when they actually need to, that is part of the problem.
The NHS needs to find a way to get back to dealing with all the other health issues or more people will die not if Covid but of other diseases.
Part of the reason behind lockdown was to allow the NHS to be able to still look after other people, whether that has happened is debatable.
If nothing else it might of taught some people that A&E isn't a catch all clinic.
We need to become healthier as a population & get the NHS working better at the levels most of us interact with it, GP level.
Rugby wise, it should only come back when it can be played as it was earlier this year, no silly avoidance of certain parts of the game, aim to start next season, with fans if at all possible.

[trendylfj]

Everyone who needs help should access the NHS and go to A + E if necessary but isn't the truth of the matter that many people went to A + E when it wasn't necessary. Messages and adverts have been banging on about this for many years and just perhaps one good thing about this whole situation is that people are beginning to ask themselves if their visit is really necessary? Also with transport use down - lack of RTA'S and the pubs being shut, the lack of punch-ups have also contributed to lower attendance. Conversely, some people who should have gone have been too scared to do so. Keep up the excellent work NHS, you have my totally admiration and no I don't work in the NHS, I am a retired Deputy Head

[Tiglon]

Firstly, Loretta, I have huge respect for the work you and your colleagues do and I'm sure that at times it must be or have been incredibly difficult over the last couple of months.

The lockdown was certainly the right thing to do to mitigate the initial onslaught, but as an outsider looking in it does seem as though the NHS could be organised much more effectively. Surely it's not right that some people are stood down while others are enduring such a challenging time?

---------------------------------------------------------------

I have read this morning that 3 people under 15 have died in the UK with coronavirus (with coronavirus, not from coronavirus, and they all had serious underlying health conditions). And this is enough for half the country to be protesting against re-opening parts of schools? "My child isn't a guinea pig". Your little darling will be just fine, Sharon, get on with it.

I also read that the chances of a 40 year old dying in a year are almost exactly the same as the chances of him or her dying from coronavirus if he or she gets it. How many 40 year olds are particularly worried about death in general? Not many, so why should they now be worried about getting coronavirus?

A huge number of the people who have died from coronavirus would have died from flu this winter, or from X or Y or Z. We did the right thing by locking down, and we need to take measures to protect some of the more vulnerable in society, but we are at serious risk of dragging this out much longer than needed and doing more harm than good - just so the media get more clicks and sell more adverts.

As far as professional rugby players are concerned, corona virus is probably less of a risk than a scrum or jumping to catch a high ball. Time to get them back to training.

[Tiglon]

Everyone who needs help should access the NHS and go to A + E if necessary but isn't the truth of the matter that many people went to A + E when it wasn't necessary. Messages and adverts have been banging on about this for many years and just perhaps one good thing about this whole situation is that people are beginning to ask themselves if their visit is really necessary? Also with transport use down - lack of RTA'S and the pubs being shut, the lack of punch-ups have also contributed to lower attendance. Conversely, some people who should have gone have been too scared to do so. Keep up the excellent work NHS, you have my totally admiration and no I don't work in the NHS, I am a retired Deputy Head

A family member was supposed to go into hospital for cancer treatment last week. It was cancelled because their capacity was taken up entirely by RTAs. We're all terrified of coronavirus, but we're not worried that driving our cars into other cars might also be a little dangerous - what is wrong with our species?

[JP14]

Guernsey is going to be practically out of lockdown soon, and in the next couple of weeks we'll see more and more kids trickle back into primary school as well as more schools opening.

[RichieB]

Everyone who needs help should access the NHS and go to A + E if necessary but isn't the truth of the matter that many people went to A + E when it wasn't necessary. Messages and adverts have been banging on about this for many years and just perhaps one good thing about this whole situation is that people are beginning to ask themselves if their visit is really necessary? Also with transport use down - lack of RTA'S and the pubs being shut, the lack of punch-ups have also contributed to lower attendance. Conversely, some people who should have gone have been too scared to do so. Keep up the excellent work NHS, you have my totally admiration and no I don't work in the NHS, I am a retired Deputy Head

A family member was supposed to go into hospital for cancer treatment last week. It was cancelled because their capacity was taken up entirely by RTAs. We're all terrified of coronavirus, but we're not worried that driving our cars into other cars might also be a little dangerous - what is wrong with our species?

I know this sounds very depressing, but sometimes I think that the species doesn't deserve to survive. There are just so many dull idiots around it makes me feel ashamed to be part of the same species. You have to remind yourself that there are just as many good, kind and compassionate people out there and sadly sometimes that gets overshadowed by the imbeciles. Based on some of the stuff you see coming from Trump and his cronies, I think it is more a case of God help America than God bless America.

I get the concerns for the future survival of sports clubs in general, not just rugby. There are equally as many concerns about the future survival of businesses across the globe. Ultimately we will adapt, we have no choice.

[chewbacca]

A huge number of the people who have died from coronavirus would have died from flu this winter, or from X or Y or Z. We did the right thing by locking down, and we need to take measures to protect some of the more vulnerable in society, but we are at serious risk of dragging this out much longer than needed and doing more harm than good - just so the media get more clicks and sell more adverts.

As far as professional rugby players are concerned, corona virus is probably less of a risk than a scrum or jumping to catch a high ball. Time to get them back to training.

I think you need to look at the ONS statistics for deaths. As of w/e 8th May deaths above the 5 year average were circa 55,000 for the past few months. Thats all causes. Some who died from the virus have most definitely not been tested nor had covid on the death certificate but would almost certainly have had the disease. As for flu, which is not a coronavirus, we have a vaccine for that, which is why the death rate from flu has fallen over the years.

[jgriffin]

A huge number of the people who have died from coronavirus would have died from flu this winter, or from X or Y or Z. We did the right thing by locking down, and we need to take measures to protect some of the more vulnerable in society, but we are at serious risk of dragging this out much longer than needed and doing more harm than good - just so the media get more clicks and sell more adverts.

As far as professional rugby players are concerned, corona virus is probably less of a risk than a scrum or jumping to catch a high ball. Time to get them back to training.

I think you need to look at the ONS statistics for deaths. As of w/e 8th May deaths above the 5 year average were circa 55,000 for the past few months. Thats all causes. Some who died from the virus have most definitely not been tested nor had covid on the death certificate but would almost certainly have had the disease. As for flu, which is not a coronavirus, we have a vaccine for that, which is why the death rate from flu has fallen over the years.

Apart from supporting Chewbacca, and noting that if you think things are bad, something that is the true goal may well make things worse natural selection means although there are now over 1,500 C virus mutations and deletions noted across the world, a virus as successful in reproducing as this is will be unlikely to mutate lethally. What it will do is continue until there is a vaccine or permanent antibody status (unlikely). So without being as cavalier as Tiglon, accommodation will have to be found, but not the false accommodation of a cheap mask and a pair of used gloves.

[Dangerous4]

Everyone who needs help should access the NHS and go to A + E if necessary but isn't the truth of the matter that many people went to A + E when it wasn't necessary. Messages and adverts have been banging on about this for many years and just perhaps one good thing about this whole situation is that people are beginning to ask themselves if their visit is really necessary? Also with transport use down - lack of RTA'S and the pubs being shut, the lack of punch-ups have also contributed to lower attendance. Conversely, some people who should have gone have been too scared to do so. Keep up the excellent work NHS, you have my totally admiration and no I don't work in the NHS, I am a retired Deputy Head

A splendid post. I couldn't agree more. Other good posts also.

[northerntiger]

I also rather suspect that the actual number of cases is way more than the published figures. I know of 20 or so people who have had an illness that presented with covid symptoms in the last couple of months. Only one of those was actually tested, so only she will appear as an official victim. Now, I realise that this is not really a scientific sample, but if you extrapolate that to the UK, you get a significant percentage of the population who had had it and are possibly immune.
I suspect, that rather than the somewhat hysterical 'second wave', the virus will subside and we will be still locked down for no real reason.
I also agree with some of the posters above. If you are healthy and under 55, the statisics show you are under not much more risk than daily living.

[h's dad]

W/e 10/4/20 Expected deaths: 9807; Actual deaths: 18516 - 8709 or 89% above average
W/e 17/4/20 Expected deaths: 9787; Actual deaths: 22351 - 12564 or 128% above average
W/e 24/4/20 Expected deaths: 9768; Actual deaths: 21997 - 12229 or 125% above average

UK ONS numbers per week.

Like northerntiger I am suspicious of the official numbers, particularly as they have regularly and consistently been shown to have gross flaws and omissions. While we are all going to die at some point, suggesting that all or most coronavirus victims were about to die anyway is patently ludicrous.

Just as a note, the average number of UK deaths per year from terrorism over the last 20 years is less than 8.

Some may not be concerned about unfit over 55's where most of the deaths are falling. I am.

[Mark62]

The issue with some, not all, out patients appointments is the if they are for cancer treatments, or respiratory infections, the immune system is already reduced and were such a patient to contract Covid 19, their chances would be bleak. The same can be said to a certain degree of patients awaiting surgery.

[Old Hob]

I also rather suspect that the actual number of cases is way more than the published figures. I know of 20 or so people who have had an illness that presented with covid symptoms in the last couple of months. Only one of those was actually tested, so only she will appear as an official victim. Now, I realise that this is not really a scientific sample, but if you extrapolate that to the UK, you get a significant percentage of the population who had had it and are possibly immune.
I suspect, that rather than the somewhat hysterical 'second wave', the virus will subside and we will be still locked down for no real reason.
I also agree with some of the posters above. If you are healthy and under 55, the statisics show you are under not much more risk than daily living.

True. However, you may be a risk to others. I agree with trendy's post (above)