Provisional Premiership Return Date ?

[Mark62]

Or like New Zealand just eradicate the disease through contact tracing so that there is less of reliance on the vaccine?

There has never been a vaccine found for Spanish Flu yet life returned to normal after 1920.

There is a huge difference in lifestyle and culture in New Zealand which has helped with their recovery. Comparing them to the uk is comparing apples and oranges

[DingDong]

Or like New Zealand just eradicate the disease through contact tracing so that there is less of reliance on the vaccine?

There has never been a vaccine found for Spanish Flu yet life returned to normal after 1920.

There is a huge difference in lifestyle and culture in New Zealand which has helped with their recovery. Comparing them to the uk is comparing apples and oranges

NZ population 4.8 million over 103k square miles
UK population 66.6 million over 94k square miles
Realistically not comparative or relevant to eradicating any virus!

[JP14]

Or like New Zealand just eradicate the disease through contact tracing so that there is less of reliance on the vaccine?

There has never been a vaccine found for Spanish Flu yet life returned to normal after 1920.

There is a huge difference in lifestyle and culture in New Zealand which has helped with their recovery. Comparing them to the uk is comparing apples and oranges

Mark, I agree that dealing with the virus in New Zealand compared to the UK is a stroll in the park but that doesn't mean to say we still shouldn't be using contact tracing (which we are beginning to now) to effectively combat the disease and ease the blanket lockdown.

[kend]

Or like New Zealand just eradicate the disease through contact tracing so that there is less of reliance on the vaccine?

There has never been a vaccine found for Spanish Flu yet life returned to normal after 1920.

There is a huge difference in lifestyle and culture in New Zealand which has helped with their recovery. Comparing them to the uk is comparing apples and oranges

NZ population 4.8 million over 103k square miles
UK population 66.6 million over 94k square miles
Realistically not comparative or relevant to eradicating any virus!

I question the premise. The vast majority of NZ'ers live in the cities so the issues of control and effectiveness are broadly the same. But you can also look at Germany, Denmark or South Korea (or even, remarkably, the state of Kerala in India. Which given their low GDP per capita is truly astonishing) for more effective responses.

The UK has the second highest C-19 per capita death rate in the world (amongst comparable countries). Perhaps the difficulties of restarting rugby could be related......

[Mark62]

There is a huge difference in lifestyle and culture in New Zealand which has helped with their recovery. Comparing them to the uk is comparing apples and oranges

NZ population 4.8 million over 103k square miles
UK population 66.6 million over 94k square miles
Realistically not comparative or relevant to eradicating any virus!

I question the premise. The vast majority of NZ'ers live in the cities so the issues of control and effectiveness are broadly the same. But you can also look at Germany, Denmark or South Korea (or even, remarkably, the state of Kerala in India. Which given their low GDP per capita is truly astonishing) for more effective responses.

The UK has the second highest C-19 per capita death rate in the world (amongst comparable countries). Perhaps the difficulties of restarting rugby could be related......

They do but look at the population density of the cities such as Auckland and Wellington, they are nothing like those of Birmingham or Manchester let alone London. The point I’m making is that imo death rates between countries should not be compared because there are so many variables particularly where culture and behavioural patterns are involved

[Mark62]

Or like New Zealand just eradicate the disease through contact tracing so that there is less of reliance on the vaccine?

There has never been a vaccine found for Spanish Flu yet life returned to normal after 1920.

There is a huge difference in lifestyle and culture in New Zealand which has helped with their recovery. Comparing them to the uk is comparing apples and oranges

Mark, I agree that dealing with the virus in New Zealand compared to the UK is a stroll in the park but that doesn't mean to say we still shouldn't be using contact tracing (which we are beginning to now) to effectively combat the disease and ease the blanket lockdown.

And nobody said we shouldn’t, but I keep reading about New Zealand and it isn’t an accurate comparison

[Cardiff Tig]

Or like New Zealand just eradicate the disease through contact tracing so that there is less of reliance on the vaccine?

There has never been a vaccine found for Spanish Flu yet life returned to normal after 1920.

There is a huge difference in lifestyle and culture in New Zealand which has helped with their recovery. Comparing them to the uk is comparing apples and oranges

Mark, I agree that dealing with the virus in New Zealand compared to the UK is a stroll in the park but that doesn't mean to say we still shouldn't be using contact tracing (which we are beginning to now) to effectively combat the disease and ease the blanket lockdown.

The difference is the number of cases. We still have circa 2000 a day to contact trace (and more like 8000 community cases). Every other country that has relaxed lockdown was at a much lower point when they did it. Even so, that wouldn't have been a problem is the contact tracing had been developed during the lockdown instead of a rush job and learning on the job as they are now.

[Mark62]

There is a huge difference in lifestyle and culture in New Zealand which has helped with their recovery. Comparing them to the uk is comparing apples and oranges

Mark, I agree that dealing with the virus in New Zealand compared to the UK is a stroll in the park but that doesn't mean to say we still shouldn't be using contact tracing (which we are beginning to now) to effectively combat the disease and ease the blanket lockdown.

The difference is the number of cases. We still have circa 2000 a day to contact trace (and more like 8000 community cases). Every other country that has relaxed lockdown was at a much lower point when they did it. Even so, that wouldn't have been a problem is the contact tracing had been developed during the lockdown instead of a rush job and learning on the job as they are now.

I think we all agree that the contact tracing is the way forward provided it works correctly

[Cardiff Tig]

Agreed!

[Tiglon]

There is a huge difference in lifestyle and culture in New Zealand which has helped with their recovery. Comparing them to the uk is comparing apples and oranges

NZ population 4.8 million over 103k square miles
UK population 66.6 million over 94k square miles
Realistically not comparative or relevant to eradicating any virus!

I question the premise. The vast majority of NZ'ers live in the cities so the issues of control and effectiveness are broadly the same. But you can also look at Germany, Denmark or South Korea (or even, remarkably, the state of Kerala in India. Which given their low GDP per capita is truly astonishing) for more effective responses.

The UK has the second highest C-19 per capita death rate in the world (amongst comparable countries). Perhaps the difficulties of restarting rugby could be related......

Some of these "astonishing" low numbers in places like India could perhaps be at least partially down to different ways in reporting deaths. Maybe not all countries use the UK approach of "difficulty breathing before death therefore coronavirus". You also need to bear in mind the undocumented and unreported numbers of deaths as a consequence of the lockdown itself in countries such as India. Even if a lockdown saves 10,000 lives from coronavirus, it's not successful if it costs 11,000 lives from other causes.

Perhaps also poorer countries have less sophisticated healthcare which simply isn't capable of identifying all cases of Coronavirus. What percentage of the population of India actually gets seen by a doctor when they die?

Then there's Sweden which made the "weakest" response and is generally fine (or as fine as any nation is at the moment).

Sometimes we as a species are too arrogant to consider that some things are largely out of our control. The responses by countries may not have affected the outcomes as much as we think. Norway have analysed the data and concluded that their R was already decreasing before lockdown and, in hindsight, there was no need for a lockdown.

[Cardiff Tig]

Some of these "astonishing" low numbers in places like India could perhaps be at least partially down to different ways in reporting deaths. Maybe not all countries use the UK approach of "difficulty breathing before death therefore coronavirus". You also need to bear in mind the undocumented and unreported numbers of deaths as a consequence of the lockdown itself in countries such as India. Even if a lockdown saves 10,000 lives from coronavirus, it's not successful if it costs 11,000 lives from other causes.

Perhaps also poorer countries have less sophisticated healthcare which simply isn't capable of identifying all cases of Coronavirus. What percentage of the population of India actually gets seen by a doctor when they die?

Then there's Sweden which made the "weakest" response and is generally fine (or as fine as any nation is at the moment).

Sometimes we as a species are too arrogant to consider that some things are largely out of our control. The responses by countries may not have affected the outcomes as much as we think. Norway have analysed the data and concluded that their R was already decreasing before lockdown and, in hindsight, there was no need for a lockdown.

I agree about the low numbers in countries like India but noone is really comparing the UK with India or other countries with very different systems. More accurate comparisons are with France and Germany for instance, and show how testing significant numbers at start makes a huge difference to the pandemic.

Generally fine is a strange way to describe Sweden - it's seen a huge amount of deaths compared to Denmark, Norway and Finland. Even their leading scientists are saying they would enact more restrictions if they did the whole thing again.

[Tigerbeat]

Can we try and bring this conversation back on topic.
Thanks

[h's dad]

Sweden keeps getting touted as an example of what we should have done. Sweden's death rate is much higher that its comparable near neighbours (as much as ten times higher) and the person responsible for their approach has said it was wrong and disastrous and that their controls should have been much firmer.

I think I'm right in saying the season has been declared over for all but the premiership (TV money). I can't help thinking that whatever happens in the Gallagher, it will feel like a bit of a damp squib.

[kk20gb30]

Possibly August 15 :
https://www.rugbypass.com/news/premiers ... ip-season/

[trendylfj]

Bath,amongst others, have confirmed the target date - agreed last night

https://www.bathrugby.com/club-news/tar ... confirmed/