There is a huge difference in lifestyle and culture in New Zealand which has helped with their recovery. Comparing them to the uk is comparing apples and oranges
Provisional Premiership Return Date ?
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Re: Provisional Premiership Return Date ?
Re: Provisional Premiership Return Date ?
NZ population 4.8 million over 103k square miles
UK population 66.6 million over 94k square miles
Realistically not comparative or relevant to eradicating any virus!
Re: Provisional Premiership Return Date ?
Mark, I agree that dealing with the virus in New Zealand compared to the UK is a stroll in the park but that doesn't mean to say we still shouldn't be using contact tracing (which we are beginning to now) to effectively combat the disease and ease the blanket lockdown.
Formerly of Burbaaage (not Inkleh), now up north at uni
Re: Provisional Premiership Return Date ?
I question the premise. The vast majority of NZ'ers live in the cities so the issues of control and effectiveness are broadly the same. But you can also look at Germany, Denmark or South Korea (or even, remarkably, the state of Kerala in India. Which given their low GDP per capita is truly astonishing) for more effective responses.DingDong wrote: ↑Wed Jun 03, 2020 11:05 amNZ population 4.8 million over 103k square miles
UK population 66.6 million over 94k square miles
Realistically not comparative or relevant to eradicating any virus!
The UK has the second highest C-19 per capita death rate in the world (amongst comparable countries). Perhaps the difficulties of restarting rugby could be related......
Re: Provisional Premiership Return Date ?
They do but look at the population density of the cities such as Auckland and Wellington, they are nothing like those of Birmingham or Manchester let alone London. The point I’m making is that imo death rates between countries should not be compared because there are so many variables particularly where culture and behavioural patterns are involvedkend wrote: ↑Wed Jun 03, 2020 12:03 pmI question the premise. The vast majority of NZ'ers live in the cities so the issues of control and effectiveness are broadly the same. But you can also look at Germany, Denmark or South Korea (or even, remarkably, the state of Kerala in India. Which given their low GDP per capita is truly astonishing) for more effective responses.
The UK has the second highest C-19 per capita death rate in the world (amongst comparable countries). Perhaps the difficulties of restarting rugby could be related......
Re: Provisional Premiership Return Date ?
And nobody said we shouldn’t, but I keep reading about New Zealand and it isn’t an accurate comparisonJP14 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 03, 2020 11:21 amMark, I agree that dealing with the virus in New Zealand compared to the UK is a stroll in the park but that doesn't mean to say we still shouldn't be using contact tracing (which we are beginning to now) to effectively combat the disease and ease the blanket lockdown.
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Re: Provisional Premiership Return Date ?
The difference is the number of cases. We still have circa 2000 a day to contact trace (and more like 8000 community cases). Every other country that has relaxed lockdown was at a much lower point when they did it. Even so, that wouldn't have been a problem is the contact tracing had been developed during the lockdown instead of a rush job and learning on the job as they are now.JP14 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 03, 2020 11:21 amMark, I agree that dealing with the virus in New Zealand compared to the UK is a stroll in the park but that doesn't mean to say we still shouldn't be using contact tracing (which we are beginning to now) to effectively combat the disease and ease the blanket lockdown.
Re: Provisional Premiership Return Date ?
I think we all agree that the contact tracing is the way forward provided it works correctlyCardiff Tig wrote: ↑Wed Jun 03, 2020 12:40 pmThe difference is the number of cases. We still have circa 2000 a day to contact trace (and more like 8000 community cases). Every other country that has relaxed lockdown was at a much lower point when they did it. Even so, that wouldn't have been a problem is the contact tracing had been developed during the lockdown instead of a rush job and learning on the job as they are now.JP14 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 03, 2020 11:21 amMark, I agree that dealing with the virus in New Zealand compared to the UK is a stroll in the park but that doesn't mean to say we still shouldn't be using contact tracing (which we are beginning to now) to effectively combat the disease and ease the blanket lockdown.
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Re: Provisional Premiership Return Date ?
Some of these "astonishing" low numbers in places like India could perhaps be at least partially down to different ways in reporting deaths. Maybe not all countries use the UK approach of "difficulty breathing before death therefore coronavirus". You also need to bear in mind the undocumented and unreported numbers of deaths as a consequence of the lockdown itself in countries such as India. Even if a lockdown saves 10,000 lives from coronavirus, it's not successful if it costs 11,000 lives from other causes.kend wrote: ↑Wed Jun 03, 2020 12:03 pmI question the premise. The vast majority of NZ'ers live in the cities so the issues of control and effectiveness are broadly the same. But you can also look at Germany, Denmark or South Korea (or even, remarkably, the state of Kerala in India. Which given their low GDP per capita is truly astonishing) for more effective responses.
The UK has the second highest C-19 per capita death rate in the world (amongst comparable countries). Perhaps the difficulties of restarting rugby could be related......
Perhaps also poorer countries have less sophisticated healthcare which simply isn't capable of identifying all cases of Coronavirus. What percentage of the population of India actually gets seen by a doctor when they die?
Then there's Sweden which made the "weakest" response and is generally fine (or as fine as any nation is at the moment).
Sometimes we as a species are too arrogant to consider that some things are largely out of our control. The responses by countries may not have affected the outcomes as much as we think. Norway have analysed the data and concluded that their R was already decreasing before lockdown and, in hindsight, there was no need for a lockdown.
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Re: Provisional Premiership Return Date ?
I agree about the low numbers in countries like India but noone is really comparing the UK with India or other countries with very different systems. More accurate comparisons are with France and Germany for instance, and show how testing significant numbers at start makes a huge difference to the pandemic.Tiglon wrote: ↑Wed Jun 03, 2020 12:46 pm Some of these "astonishing" low numbers in places like India could perhaps be at least partially down to different ways in reporting deaths. Maybe not all countries use the UK approach of "difficulty breathing before death therefore coronavirus". You also need to bear in mind the undocumented and unreported numbers of deaths as a consequence of the lockdown itself in countries such as India. Even if a lockdown saves 10,000 lives from coronavirus, it's not successful if it costs 11,000 lives from other causes.
Perhaps also poorer countries have less sophisticated healthcare which simply isn't capable of identifying all cases of Coronavirus. What percentage of the population of India actually gets seen by a doctor when they die?
Then there's Sweden which made the "weakest" response and is generally fine (or as fine as any nation is at the moment).
Sometimes we as a species are too arrogant to consider that some things are largely out of our control. The responses by countries may not have affected the outcomes as much as we think. Norway have analysed the data and concluded that their R was already decreasing before lockdown and, in hindsight, there was no need for a lockdown.
Generally fine is a strange way to describe Sweden - it's seen a huge amount of deaths compared to Denmark, Norway and Finland. Even their leading scientists are saying they would enact more restrictions if they did the whole thing again.
Re: Provisional Premiership Return Date ?
Can we try and bring this conversation back on topic.
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Re: Provisional Premiership Return Date ?
Sweden keeps getting touted as an example of what we should have done. Sweden's death rate is much higher that its comparable near neighbours (as much as ten times higher) and the person responsible for their approach has said it was wrong and disastrous and that their controls should have been much firmer.
I think I'm right in saying the season has been declared over for all but the premiership (TV money). I can't help thinking that whatever happens in the Gallagher, it will feel like a bit of a damp squib.
I think I'm right in saying the season has been declared over for all but the premiership (TV money). I can't help thinking that whatever happens in the Gallagher, it will feel like a bit of a damp squib.
I am neither clever enough to understand nor stupid enough to play this game
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Re: Provisional Premiership Return Date ?
Possibly August 15 :
https://www.rugbypass.com/news/premiers ... ip-season/
https://www.rugbypass.com/news/premiers ... ip-season/
Seemingly heading rapidly toward senility .....Not long or far to go now , in fact, getting worse daily.....
Re: Provisional Premiership Return Date ?
Bath,amongst others, have confirmed the target date - agreed last night
https://www.bathrugby.com/club-news/tar ... confirmed/
https://www.bathrugby.com/club-news/tar ... confirmed/
Last edited by trendylfj on Fri Jun 05, 2020 9:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
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