Will games get cancelled?

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jgriffin
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Re: Will games get cancelled?

Post by jgriffin » Mon Mar 16, 2020 12:29 pm

drc_007 wrote:
Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:18 am
This virus is here to stay, look at the distribution around the world, many estimates suggest true infection rate is 10 to 100-fold higher than "confirmed" cases. Long term we have to look towards immunity either by infection or vaccination, vaccine is 12 months away and you need to add on production, distribution and administration to effectively the whole world.

For many the illness is short-lived but unpleasant, focus resources on helping the most at risk.

Unfortunately most politicians (and public) are only interested in the next couple of weeks.
I don't think some politicos think further than their own nests and how many feathers they can line them with, and the rest is chanting ideological carp like 'the market will determine' - and I have known quite a few politicos over the last 5 decades. It is clear that testing, treatment and isolation is the strategy that works but as you say no account is taken of the logistics or the necessary actions to ensure both the strategy and essential resources are in place. Grrrrr…...
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Re: Will games get cancelled?

Post by JP14 » Mon Mar 16, 2020 2:46 pm

I appreciate that the age demographic of this forum means a lot of posters are concerned about their health however when the Chief Medical Officer amongst other officials clearly express that the lockdown of areas like schools is not beneficial then I don’t see the necessity in the prolonged postponement of the league for more than four weeks.
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Mark62
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Re: Will games get cancelled?

Post by Mark62 » Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:16 pm

JP14 wrote:
Mon Mar 16, 2020 2:46 pm
I appreciate that the age demographic of this forum means a lot of posters are concerned about their health however when the Chief Medical Officer amongst other officials clearly express that the lockdown of areas like schools is not beneficial then I don’t see the necessity in the prolonged postponement of the league for more than four weeks.
2 reasons really. Firstly if they shut the schools where do the children go. Parents won’t be able to stop working so they quite often ask more elderly relatives to look after their offspring, and these are the people most at risk from a virus attacking the respiratory system. The second option would be for parents to take time off work in rotas and take turns in having little Jonny and his mates round. If their doing that they may as well be at school.
In terms of postponement it’s not so much the games but more the gathering of large numbers of people. Sports crowds by their nature contain all ages and generations and therefore the likelihood of an innocent bystander catching the virus and then spreading it is greatly increased. Even if the games were played behind closed doors there would probably have to be around 200 people around to make sure the game could be played.

One of the gravest concerns of security forces around the world is that an individual could release a bio weapon in a crowd of people who would then disperse and spread any infection far and wide. The 2 most likely scenarios for this are a travel hub and a sports stadium.
I hope that doesn’t sound like scaremongering and this obviously isn’t a weapon but the authorities have to do whatever they can to prevent it spreading.
Put in context I’m currently self isolating for 7 days as I’ve got minor symptoms after a relative was in contact with someone who was in contact with someone who has it

jgriffin
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Re: Will games get cancelled?

Post by jgriffin » Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:32 pm

Mark62 wrote:
Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:16 pm
JP14 wrote:
Mon Mar 16, 2020 2:46 pm
I appreciate that the age demographic of this forum means a lot of posters are concerned about their health however when the Chief Medical Officer amongst other officials clearly express that the lockdown of areas like schools is not beneficial then I don’t see the necessity in the prolonged postponement of the league for more than four weeks.
2 reasons really. Firstly if they shut the schools where do the children go. Parents won’t be able to stop working so they quite often ask more elderly relatives to look after their offspring, and these are the people most at risk from a virus attacking the respiratory system. The second option would be for parents to take time off work in rotas and take turns in having little Jonny and his mates round. If their doing that they may as well be at school.
In terms of postponement it’s not so much the games but more the gathering of large numbers of people. Sports crowds by their nature contain all ages and generations and therefore the likelihood of an innocent bystander catching the virus and then spreading it is greatly increased. Even if the games were played behind closed doors there would probably have to be around 200 people around to make sure the game could be played.

One of the gravest concerns of security forces around the world is that an individual could release a bio weapon in a crowd of people who would then disperse and spread any infection far and wide. The 2 most likely scenarios for this are a travel hub and a sports stadium.
I hope that doesn’t sound like scaremongering and this obviously isn’t a weapon but the authorities have to do whatever they can to prevent it spreading.
Put in context I’m currently self isolating for 7 days as I’ve got minor symptoms after a relative was in contact with someone who was in contact with someone who has it
Largely I agree with you, except I am invigilating an exam in the school I teach in as I type on the laptop (there's only 3 sixth form students left writing). A school is a hotbed of contagion under normal circumstances, whereas many kids will only meet in small groups outside, if not sit on their internets all day. We have 3 staff self-isolating already under the same or similar circumstances to you. The Chinese research shows young people being the drivers of subsequent community contagion, as they harbour viruses sub-clinically, so really it's mega contagion in schools versus lesser contagion off school. I think the plan to centralise local schooling of essential staff's kids could work in the main. I don't share JP14's view; rather I think this is here for a much longer - hopefully less virulent - period.
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A game played on grass in the open air by teams of XV.

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Re: Will games get cancelled?

Post by Mark62 » Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:51 pm

Jgriffin thank you for your input which makes a lot of sense.
I agree totally that we are in for a longer term less virulent strain.
It is the more vulnerable groups that must be protected, which tend to be in the older age brackets.
Someone such as jp14 who is young and as likely fit as a butchers dog could probably catch this and think they have no more than a common cold

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Re: Will games get cancelled?

Post by JP14 » Mon Mar 16, 2020 4:45 pm

It’s fine if you don’t disagree with me Mark, JGriffin or anybody.
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Mollycat
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Re: Will games get cancelled?

Post by Mollycat » Mon Mar 16, 2020 6:14 pm

Postponed until weekend 24 april at moment.

chewbacca
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Re: Will games get cancelled?

Post by chewbacca » Mon Mar 16, 2020 6:25 pm

Mark62 wrote:
Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:51 pm
Jgriffin thank you for your input which makes a lot of sense.
I agree totally that we are in for a longer term less virulent strain.
It is the more vulnerable groups that must be protected, which tend to be in the older age brackets.
Someone such as jp14 who is young and as likely fit as a butchers dog could probably catch this and think they have no more than a common cold
Not sure the prospect is for a less virulent strain the strategy is to lengthen the doubling time which at the moment is 3 days (ie number of cases doubles every 3 days, exponential growth)
I'm not cynical just experienced

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Re: Will games get cancelled?

Post by Cardiff Tig » Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:18 pm

There's a lot of panicking at the moment. No one has died under 50 and no one has died without underlying health issues, mainly kidney and heart. Its going to be bad but the number of undiagnosed cases is astronomical. Remember the UK is only testing suspected cases when they are significantly ill. Multiply cases by 30 and you'll be nearer the true number.

A few weeks and warmer weather will change things massively. Whether for good or bad is sti up for debate, there just isn't enough long term data.

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Re: Will games get cancelled?

Post by BFG » Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:19 pm

All rugger cancelled in England until April 14th subject to continued review.

chewbacca
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Re: Will games get cancelled?

Post by chewbacca » Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:41 pm

Cardiff Tig wrote:
Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:18 pm
There's a lot of panicking at the moment. No one has died under 50 and no one has died without underlying health issues, mainly kidney and heart. Its going to be bad but the number of undiagnosed cases is astronomical. Remember the UK is only testing suspected cases when they are significantly ill. Multiply cases by 30 and you'll be nearer the true number.

A few weeks and warmer weather will change things massively. Whether for good or bad is sti up for debate, there just isn't enough long term data.
I dunno why we bother treating people with heart and kidney disease at all. Waste of time. Same with over 50s. Not really any point in testing either if you can say how many have it without doing so.
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Re: Will games get cancelled?

Post by Scott1 » Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:44 pm

The only absolute number is number of those that have sadly lossed their lives. It has to be as all deaths are recorded. One positive way to look at it is that there could be tens or maybe hundreds of thousands that could be infected that haven’t been tested. That tells me that the mortality rate is very,very low.

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Re: Will games get cancelled?

Post by chewbacca » Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:49 pm

Scott1 wrote:
Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:44 pm
The only absolute number is number of those that have sadly lossed their lives. It has to be as all deaths are recorded. One positive way to look at it is that there could be tens or maybe hundreds of thousands that could be infected that haven’t been tested. That tells me that the mortality rate is very,very low.
There could be nobody not tested that has it as equally based on absolutely no data as your assessment
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Re: Will games get cancelled?

Post by JP14 » Tue Mar 17, 2020 8:40 am

If the season is resumed, perhaps to ensure we are still able to finish by June, they may run B sides in Premiership fixtures on a Wednesday then play the European games at the weekends? Or is that not feasible?
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Re: Will games get cancelled?

Post by BFG » Tue Mar 17, 2020 9:54 am

JP14 wrote:
Tue Mar 17, 2020 8:40 am
If the season is resumed, perhaps to ensure we are still able to finish by June, they may run B sides in Premiership fixtures on a Wednesday then play the European games at the weekends? Or is that not feasible?
The way things are going then at this point I'd assume that the season is over.
The government is prioritising big business over people and that in my opinion is a national disgrace and potentially catastrophic for so many.
I can understand schools being kept open to a certain extent, many kids rely on school meals and many emergency workers will not be able to attend work if their children are off school etc, but billions of pounds will be pumped into big business of which billionaires profit and yet there has not been a peep from the government regarding the suspension of utility bills, rents, loans, mortgages etc.

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