Can we finish 4th?

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ellis9
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Can we finish 4th?

Post by ellis9 » Fri Dec 14, 2018 12:18 pm

I have looked at the average points earned per game so far for Gloucester in 3rd and Wasps in 4th.

Currently, Gloucester get 3.11 points per game and Wasps get 2.66. Tigers currently earn 2 points per match.

If they continue at this rate, Gloucester will finish on 68 points and Wasps on 58.

If we want to finish 4th, we need to aim for 59 points, meaning we will need 3.15 from each match or to get 3rd, we will need 3.92 per match.

I know things could change but I thought it would be interesting to see on others clubs current form, how many points we need to get to finish in the top 4.

In theory, to finish 4th, out of the 13 games left, we could win 7 of them if we get 5 points in each and lose 6, so long as we get 1 point from each loss, as this would give us another 41 points totalling 59 with the 18 we currently have.

It just shows how tight it is and realistic it is to finish 4th. We can still be inconsistent for the rest of the season and only win 7 more games but still finish 4th.

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Re: Can we finish 4th?

Post by Scott1 » Fri Dec 14, 2018 12:33 pm

Nope,not unless there's a MASSIVE turnaround! We are looking down rather than up at present and as I said preseason Bristol with Lam would definitely stay up and possibly sneak top 6 and Wuss will stay up too meaning a big club will go this season. Why can't it be us? Leicester won the premiership and Connacht won the PRO12/14,these things happen in sport sometimes.
I'll take it one game or a block of games at a time. Quin's,Bath,Gloc needs a minimum of 6 points and then let's go from there. Even our proud RCC/HC looks like going this season!

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Re: Can we finish 4th?

Post by ellis9 » Fri Dec 14, 2018 12:40 pm

Scott1 wrote:
Fri Dec 14, 2018 12:33 pm
Nope,not unless there's a MASSIVE turnaround! We are looking down rather than up at present and as I said preseason Bristol with Lam would definitely stay up and possibly sneak top 6 and Wuss will stay up too meaning a big club will go this season. Why can't it be us? Leicester won the premiership and Connacht won the PRO12/14,these things happen in sport sometimes.
I'll take it one game or a block of games at a time. Quin's,Bath,Gloc needs a minimum of 6 points and then let's go from there. Even our proud RCC/HC looks like going this season!
I think we can get 13 points from those 3. 5 against Quins and 4 from Bath and Gloucester.

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Re: Can we finish 4th?

Post by Scott1 » Fri Dec 14, 2018 12:47 pm

What makes you think we can get 13 points,not using last season's games as a guide? You're saying 4th is realistic but to say we can win 7 games with TBP is completely "unrealistic" imo,without googling I honestly couldn't tell you our last win. I admire your optimism Ellis as always but let's look at the real picture for now.

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Re: Can we finish 4th?

Post by ellis9 » Fri Dec 14, 2018 12:51 pm

Scott1 wrote:
Fri Dec 14, 2018 12:47 pm
What makes you think we can get 13 points,not using last season's games as a guide? You're saying 4th is realistic but to say we can win 7 games with TBP is completely "unrealistic" imo,without googling I honestly couldn't tell you our last win. I admire your optimism Ellis as always but let's look at the real picture for now.
I feel we are about to turn our season around and we are good enough to get 13 points from those 3 games.

I didn't say we would win 7 games with a 4 try bonus point, I said we could do it that way. What I was saying is, we could still be inconsistent and only win 7 out of 13 games. In theory, we will probably need to win more than 7.

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Re: Can we finish 4th?

Post by Scott1 » Fri Dec 14, 2018 12:55 pm

I've been feeling the same forever,let's see ay. I don't get excited anymore,even with our better performance last week there's a chance we could blow it and stink up the joint Sunday! Such is Tigers these days...

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Re: Can we finish 4th?

Post by drc_007 » Fri Dec 14, 2018 1:33 pm

Scott1 wrote:
Fri Dec 14, 2018 12:47 pm
What makes you think we can get 13 points,not using last season's games as a guide? You're saying 4th is realistic but to say we can win 7 games with TBP is completely "unrealistic" imo,without googling I honestly couldn't tell you our last win. I admire your optimism Ellis as always but let's look at the real picture for now.
Based on recent evidence I'd say conceding a TBP is more likely.

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Re: Can we finish 4th?

Post by BFG » Fri Dec 14, 2018 1:35 pm

Scott1 wrote:
Fri Dec 14, 2018 12:55 pm
I've been feeling the same forever,let's see ay. I don't get excited anymore,even with our better performance last week there's a chance we could blow it and stink up the joint Sunday! Such is Tigers these days...
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=6FOq_c_JwtY

Scott1
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Re: Can we finish 4th?

Post by Scott1 » Fri Dec 14, 2018 1:41 pm

That made me proper laugh, thankfully I'm nowhere near that territory....yet!

ourla
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Re: Can we finish 4th?

Post by ourla » Fri Dec 14, 2018 2:22 pm

ellis9 wrote:
Fri Dec 14, 2018 12:51 pm
Scott1 wrote:
Fri Dec 14, 2018 12:47 pm
What makes you think we can get 13 points,not using last season's games as a guide? You're saying 4th is realistic but to say we can win 7 games with TBP is completely "unrealistic" imo,without googling I honestly couldn't tell you our last win. I admire your optimism Ellis as always but let's look at the real picture for now.
I feel we are about to turn our season around and we are good enough to get 13 points from those 3 games.

I didn't say we would win 7 games with a 4 try bonus point, I said we could do it that way. What I was saying is, we could still be inconsistent and only win 7 out of 13 games. In theory, we will probably need to win more than 7.
I admire your optimism but two thoughts from me:

#1 I don't see where the optimism comes from. I mean I'm not all doom and gloom but really until we there is an improvement in our defence wins are going to be hard to come by.

#2 It would be great to be in the play offs again but scrapping into fourth and then getting spanked by Chiefs or Sarries only gets us back to where we are before last season. It stops the rot but that's about all you can say. So perhaps I am wrong to call it "optimism".
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Re: Can we finish 4th?

Post by Tigerbeat » Fri Dec 14, 2018 2:43 pm

No reason why 4th place cannot be achieved.....mathematically possible but need to start getting W next to our record instead of L.
Last week showed that the players are capable of performaing against a very good side.....need to keep that going and also keep the discipline and 15 men on the pitch.
Not all doom and gloom but small steps being taken in the right direction....looking forward to the game this Sunday.
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Re: Can we finish 4th?

Post by Scott1 » Fri Dec 14, 2018 2:45 pm

I'll keep my powder dry,everyone was singing from the rooftops after the Scarlets game and well....

ellis9
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Re: Can we finish 4th?

Post by ellis9 » Fri Dec 14, 2018 2:59 pm

Scott1 wrote:
Fri Dec 14, 2018 1:41 pm
That made me proper laugh, thankfully I'm nowhere near that territory....yet!
Not old enough for all that yet? :smt023 :smt003

ellis9
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Re: Can we finish 4th?

Post by ellis9 » Fri Dec 14, 2018 3:01 pm

ourla wrote:
Fri Dec 14, 2018 2:22 pm
ellis9 wrote:
Fri Dec 14, 2018 12:51 pm
Scott1 wrote:
Fri Dec 14, 2018 12:47 pm
What makes you think we can get 13 points,not using last season's games as a guide? You're saying 4th is realistic but to say we can win 7 games with TBP is completely "unrealistic" imo,without googling I honestly couldn't tell you our last win. I admire your optimism Ellis as always but let's look at the real picture for now.
I feel we are about to turn our season around and we are good enough to get 13 points from those 3 games.

I didn't say we would win 7 games with a 4 try bonus point, I said we could do it that way. What I was saying is, we could still be inconsistent and only win 7 out of 13 games. In theory, we will probably need to win more than 7.
I admire your optimism but two thoughts from me:

#1 I don't see where the optimism comes from. I mean I'm not all doom and gloom but really until we there is an improvement in our defence wins are going to be hard to come by.

#2 It would be great to be in the play offs again but scrapping into fourth and then getting spanked by Chiefs or Sarries only gets us back to where we are before last season. It stops the rot but that's about all you can say. So perhaps I am wrong to call it "optimism".
So we should just give up on 4th then?

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Re: Can we finish 4th?

Post by Robespierre » Fri Dec 14, 2018 3:25 pm

Yes, finishing 4th is possible but with their current form and a leaky defence I would say it’s highly unlikely and a more realistic goal would be 6th and be in next season’s Champions Cup. However, the next three league games against Quins(h), Bath(a) and Glos(h) will be a good indicator of Tigers’ chances. Three wins and some will be saying « could we finish in the top 2? »
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