The AP run-in

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MrPartridge
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The AP run-in

Post by MrPartridge »

Just thought this might be useful given only 3 weeks to go...

Current table: Played-Wins-Points-(Max Points)-Aggregate points

1. Saracens 19-14-67 (82) +161
2. Exeter 19-13-64 (79) +172
3. Wasps 19-13-62 (77) +177
4. Tigers 19-12-55 (70) +25
5. Saints 19-10-51 (66) +60
6. Quins 19-9-50 (65) +5
7. Sale 18-9-46 (66) -14

Games to be played are:

Saracens: (h) Quins, (h) Newcastle, at Worcester
Exeter: at Gloucester, (h) Wasps, at Quins
Wasps: at Worcester, at Exeter, (h) Irish
Tigers: at Saints, (h) Worcester, at Bath
Saints: (h) Tigers, (h) Bath, at Gloucester
Quins: at Saracens, at Irish, (h) Exeter
Sale: (h) Bath, at Bath, (h) Gloucester, at Newcastle

Tiebreakers for teams on same points are: 1) wins, 2) aggregate points differential (not tries scored).
ourla
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Re: The AP run-in

Post by ourla »

It's real simple. Saracens won't slip up given their fixtures and finish top. Exeter and Wasps won't drop points except when they play each other. That match will decide who finish 2nd and 3rd - and is at home for a rematch in the semi's. Whoever wins on Saturday between us and Saints will finish 4th. If it's Saints they have a fighting chance as they like playing at the Allianz. If it's us the world will have to stand on its head for us to win at the Allianz. I think Exeter or Wasps have a better chance than Bath last year of beating Sarries in the final - should it come to that.
Roly
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Re: The AP run-in

Post by Roly »

ourla wrote:It's real simple. Saracens won't slip up given their fixtures and finish top. Exeter and Wasps won't drop points except when they play each other. That match will decide who finish 2nd and 3rd - and is at home for a rematch in the semi's. Whoever wins on Saturday between us and Saints will finish 4th. If it's Saints they have a fighting chance as they like playing at the Allianz. If it's us the world will have to stand on its head for us to win at the Allianz. I think Exeter or Wasps have a better chance than Bath last year of beating Sarries in the final - should it come to that.
Agreed, at best Tigers are away to Saracens, and they would have to hope Saracens have a very bad day. Which wont happen.

Be nice to have a Tigers v Chiefs final, I've got tickets.
“It is no use saying, ‘We are doing our best.’ You have got to succeed in doing what is necessary.” Sir Winston Churchill.
Will S
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Re: The AP run-in

Post by Will S »

Tigers could lose this weekend and still be in pole position for 4th spot if they pick up a LBP.
MrPartridge
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Re: The AP run-in

Post by MrPartridge »

Not impossible that Exeter could slip to 4th if we win our 3 games and they lose to Wasps and at Quins. Gloucester away is also a banana-skin for them given the local rivalry.

I expect the order of the top 4 placings to change. Hopefully not the top 5 mind....
Jumbo
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Re: The AP run-in

Post by Jumbo »

Final table prediction:

Saracens 81pts
Wasps 76
Exeter 73
Leics 65
Saints 65
Sale 62
Quins 56
Gramps
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Re: The AP run-in

Post by Gramps »

Jumbo wrote:Final table prediction:

Saracens 81pts
Wasps 76
Exeter 73
Leics 65
Saints 65
Sale 62
Quins 56
You happy going to Saracens then Cockers
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Re: The AP run-in

Post by Jumbo »

Gramps wrote:
Jumbo wrote:Final table prediction:

Saracens 81pts
Wasps 76
Exeter 73
Leics 65
Saints 65
Sale 62
Quins 56
You happy going to Saracens then Cockers
Would rather play any of the other teams tbh
Roly
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Re: The AP run-in

Post by Roly »

Jumbo wrote:
Gramps wrote:
Jumbo wrote:Final table prediction:

Saracens 81pts
Wasps 76
Exeter 73
Leics 65
Saints 65
Sale 62
Quins 56
You happy going to Saracens then Cockers

Would rather play any of the other teams tbh
Right now, Saracens and Wasps would run rings round Tigers with Tigers away. Exeter would be a stern examination at Sandy Park.
“It is no use saying, ‘We are doing our best.’ You have got to succeed in doing what is necessary.” Sir Winston Churchill.
TomWeston
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Re: The AP run-in

Post by TomWeston »

Roly wrote:
Right now, Saracens and Wasps would run rings round Tigers with Tigers away. Exeter would be a stern examination at Sandy Park.
A lot of people thought that about our visit to the Ricoh last season. Can you remember what happened?
Roly
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Re: The AP run-in

Post by Roly »

TomWeston wrote:
Roly wrote:
Right now, Saracens and Wasps would run rings round Tigers with Tigers away. Exeter would be a stern examination at Sandy Park.
A lot of people thought that about our visit to the Ricoh last season. Can you remember what happened?
Yes, I can also remember the visit to Allianz Park. Can you remember what happened?

Both games were earlier in the season, Saracens' form has remained nearly constant, Wasps' form has improved greatly, Tigers are going to limp into the top four (probably).

Knock out rugby.... anything can happen, but generally, it goes to form.
“It is no use saying, ‘We are doing our best.’ You have got to succeed in doing what is necessary.” Sir Winston Churchill.
drc_007
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Re: The AP run-in

Post by drc_007 »

I suspect it is a season too early but looking at the performances over the last few games it looks like there is the potential there for an outstanding team. If they can put together an 80 min performance then they will be pretty irresistible.
Nailsworthstiger
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Re: The AP run-in

Post by Nailsworthstiger »

Never rule anything out, Safa's lost at home... quite unexpectedly against Saints back in 2013... what say we can do the same???
ourla
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Re: The AP run-in

Post by ourla »

Nailsworthstiger wrote:Never rule anything out, Safa's lost at home... quite unexpectedly against Saints back in 2013... what say we can do the same???
Nobodys ruling it out.
G.K
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Re: The AP run-in

Post by G.K »

Think the best we can hope for is that we get into 4th place and hope Saffas have a bad day at Alliance Park, a la the Wasps game there a few weeks back.

Ironically the best hope of Silverware this year may be in the European Cup.
Nowadays referees decide matches, players by how much.
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