Treviso.

[4071]

AS things stand, the seeding is:

1. Saracens 19 pts, 21 tries
2. Leicester 18 pts, 14 tries
3. Racing 17 pts, 13 tries
4. Clermont 14 pts, 14 tries
5. Wasps 14 pts, 11 tries
6. Stade 14 pts*, 19 tries
7. Ulster 13 pts*, 11 tries
8. Ospreys 12 pts*, 10 tries

9. Toulon 12 pts*, 5 tries

Correction. Wasps should be seeded 4 and Clermont seeded 5. Wasps have a +77 points difference whilst Clermont have +38. See Section 2.3 (c) (i) here.

And the SFs are a random draw.

Correction. See Section 2.4 in the link above.

Thanks for the links - happy to be corrected.

[Doghashadhisday]

AS things stand, the seeding is:

1. Saracens 19 pts, 21 tries
2. Leicester 18 pts, 14 tries
3. Racing 17 pts, 13 tries
4. Clermont 14 pts, 14 tries
5. Wasps 14 pts, 11 tries
6. Stade 14 pts*, 19 tries
7. Ulster 13 pts*, 11 tries
8. Ospreys 12 pts*, 10 tries

9. Toulon 12 pts*, 5 tries

Correction. Wasps should be seeded 4 and Clermont seeded 5. Wasps have a +77 points difference whilst Clermont have +38. See Section 2.3 (c) (i) here.

And the SFs are a random draw.

Correction. See Section 2.4 in the link above.

Thanks for the links - happy to be corrected.

So it seems that it is best to either finish 1st or 3rd best so that if we win the quarterfinal we get a home semi. Since Sarries look like finishing first we must contrive to let Racing finish as 2nd best qualifiers.

[Bleaklow]

I don't think this is 'strictly' correct. SF can still win the group with 4 points in Munster. See my next post below.

My apologies, MrP. I wasn't looking outside of our group.

[MrPartridge]

Bleaklow - no apologies needed! And your clarification of how the SF's pan out is a work of art. I read the ECC policy and it hurt my head!

Back to Saturday. Maybe a quick way of breaking down the possible 23:

Who needs a rest: Marcos, Tom Youngs, Kitch, MaCaffrey and Veainu. Maybe also Tait, Ben Youngs

Who needs game time: Cole (to find form), Mulipola, Barrow, Pearce, Fonua, JDV, Manu, Bell and Camacho. There is also the fast becoming forgotten man, Jordan Crane plus Niki had a week off.

I'm confident the coaches can find a 23 to bag us the 5 points we need and as others have noted, nice that we get to see the SF result in Munster in advance of our game.

[Noddy555]

Yes Nailsworth I was surprised that Leinster were bottom of their group,
let's say we finish 2nd seeds and Saracens Top, I think Clermont will win their group and possibly Wasps theirs but their group is still wide open as is the group with Ulster in it. However by getting a bonus point win on Saturday, at 23 points we may still finish as second seeds even if we lose at stade Francais a week on Sunday.

[Christophelp]

So it seems that it is best to either finish 1st or 3rd best so that if we win the quarterfinal we get a home semi. Since Sarries look like finishing first we must contrive to let Racing finish as 2nd best qualifiers.

No - the #1 and #2 seeds will have home semi-finals if all quarter-finals are won by the home sides: 1 v 4 and 2 v 3.
In fact (in terms of the semi-finals only) we definitely do not want to be the #3 or #4 seeds because they will not host 'home' semi-finals.

[Christophelp]

I posted this earlier in the week on the ECC thread but am moving it across. Great work by 4071 and Bleaklow by the way on working out the ECC rules for the QF and SF… a BIG change this year…

From my deductions, the general rules (ASSUMING WE BEAT TREVISO WITH TBP and therefore move onto 23 points) are:

1. Our QF place is guaranteed with 23 points
2. If SF FAIL TO BEAT Munster we win the group
3. If Tigers and SF end up on 24 points each we will win the group
4. If Tigers and SF end up on 23 points each it gets messy, but as long as we lose by 12 or less in Paris then we will win the group
5. At this stage, we need 25 points to be certain of a home QF. However, 23 (see 4 above) or 24 will be enough, if Toulon win at home to Wasps.

Thereafter, other here have neatly explained the QF and SF arrangements.

On the SF side of things… I'm not sure a team winning away in their QF should gain home field advantage. Not least as there is a 75% chance the away QF-alists did not win their group!

I know some people don't like NFL, NBA etc but in my opinion they seed the playoffs right and the teams with the best 2 records stay at home until they reach the final. You can just see Toulon getting jammy here, winning their QF away and getting a home semi! If I'm honest I'd like to play them home in the QF as that will unquestionably be our best chance to stop their run.

The NFL/NBA and ECC competitions aren't quite the same though are they?
There is no 'luck of the draw' in any of the US sports - although of course you can say teams are lucky to have certain other teams in their division.
Treviso and Wasps were both Tier 4 teams in the ECC draw - and look at the contrast between how they are doing in the competition! The draw was certainly favorable for us as opposed to say, Bath!!

In the ECC seeds 1 and 2 will always avoid each other until the final (which isn't necessarily the case in US sports - where the teams with the best two regular season records can meet before the final playoff game/series if they're in the same conference).

I guess the competition committee decided that the outcome of the draw can give some teams a much harder route through and they want to reward away QF wins (which average about 1 a season). That might be them overvaluing an away win in the current competition but given the disparity in the Tier 4 seeds, I'm not sure there's a perfect solution.

[Cagey Tiger]

Camacho shows nothing like that in his few appearances, and no one has really explained why, if he is so good, Exeter let him go?

Still trotting out the old chestnut about his departure from Exeter. Means absolutely nothing. We don't know why. As I said before, we let Agulla go and it wasn't because he was rubbish, which is what you are trying to imply about Camacho and Exeter

[Iain]

If the forecast is to be believed it sounds very much like it will be a hip flask kind of evening.

[Grimlish]

And the pitch is half covered this morning (dont know if it was fully covered earlier)...

[Iain]

And the pitch is half covered this morning (dont know if it was fully covered earlier)...

It is forecast for a good old frost the next couple of days. We've got a good track record of keeping games on though so I don't think there's any danger of it being off, particularly with the later kick off.

So long as we never get a game as cold as that snowy Toulouse game (1997 and 2013 while I think of it) then I'm happy!!

[Bleaklow]

And the pitch is half covered this morning (dont know if it was fully covered earlier)...

Perhaps the section that is covered won't receive any direct sunlight due to how low the sun is at the moment.

[Jon]

http://www.epcrugby.com/europeanrugbych ... peDiFI9p1A

Mulipola added to the squad in place of injured Aguero. No JDV, but saw on Merc (I think) that Manu and OTY to 100% start. Manu on the basis of around 40 mins play.

[Hot_Charlie]

http://www.epcrugby.com/europeanrugbych ... peDiFI9p1A

Mulipola added to the squad in place of injured Aguero. No JDV, but saw on Merc (I think) that Manu and OTY to 100% start. Manu on the basis of around 40 mins play.

Reversal of the previous squad change when Aguero replaced Mulipola.

[dunks43]

So it seems that it is best to either finish 1st or 3rd best so that if we win the quarterfinal we get a home semi. Since Sarries look like finishing first we must contrive to let Racing finish as 2nd best qualifiers.

No - the #1 and #2 seeds will have home semi-finals if all quarter-finals are won by the home sides: 1 v 4 and 2 v 3.
In fact (in terms of the semi-finals only) we definitely do not want to be the #3 or #4 seeds because they will not host 'home' semi-finals.

According to erc the format is


2.4 The clubs ranked 1 to 4 will have home advantage for the quarter-finals as follows:

Club 1 v Club 8 (QF1) Club 4 v Club 5 (QF2)
Club 3 v Club 6 (QF3) Club 2 v Club 7 (QF4)

The winner of QF1 will play the winner of QF2 in one semi-final, and the winner of QF3 will play the winner of QF4 in the other semi-final as follows:

Semi-final 1: winner QF1 v winner QF2
Semi-final 2: winner QF3 v winner QF4

The semi-final matches will be played at venues designated by EPCR, but the following clubs will have home country advantage in their respective semi-final matches
a) For Semi-final 1

If the clubs ranked 1 and 4 win their QFs, the club ranked 1 will have home country

If the clubs ranked 1 and 5 win their QFs, the club ranked 5 will have home country advantage

If the clubs ranked 8 and 4 win their QFs, the club ranked 8 will have home country advantage

If the clubs ranked 8 and 5 win their QFs, the club ranked 5 will have home country advantage

(b) For Semi-final 2

If the clubs ranked 3 and 2 win their QFs, the club ranked 2 will have home country advantage

If the clubs ranked 3 and 7 win their QFs, the club ranked 7 will have home country advantage

If the clubs ranked 6 and 2 win their QFs, the club ranked 6 will have home country advantage

If the clubs ranked 6 and 7 win their QFs, the club ranked 6 will have home country advantage