Home Stretch

[ourla]

Current Table
Northampton 62
Exeter 53
Saracens 52
Bath 51
Leicester 51
Wasps 48
Sale 43

Remaining Fixtures:
Northampton: Wasps(H), Exeter(A), Saracens(H), Welsh(H), Leicester(A)
Exeter: Leicester(A), Northampton(H), Wasps(A), Saracens(A), Sale(H)
Saracens: Quins(H), Leicester (H), Northampton (A), Exester(H), Welsh(A)
Bath: Welsh (A), Newcastle(A), Irish(H), Quins(A), Gloucester(H)
Leicester: Exeter(H), Saracens(A), Welsh(H), Wasps(A), Northampton(H)
Wasps: Northampton(A), Welsh(A), Exeter(H), Leicester(H), Irish(A)
Sale: Gloucester(H), Irish(A), Quins(H), Newcastle(H), Exeter(A)

Predictions:
Northampton: WLWWL (12 + 2 BPs)
Exeter: LWLLW (8 + 3)
Saracens: WWLWW (16 + 3)
Bath: WWWWW (20 + 2)
Leicester: WLWLW (12 + 2)
Wasps: LWWWW (16 + 2)
Sale: WLWWL (12 + 1)

Final Table:
Northampton: 76
Bath 73
Saracens 71
Wasps 66
Leicester 65
Exeter 64
Sale 56

Despite a fairly tough run in Northampton only have to win 3 to safely finish top and have a home draw. Safe.
Exeters next 4 games are all against teams in the top 6 and 3 of them are away. To get into the top 4 they have to win one of those and beat Northampton and Sale at home. Or if they lose to Northampton win two away. Big ask.
Saracens have 3 home which in reality all look very winnable and they have Welsh away. Their match against Saints will probably not be significant. Certain to make the play offs. Relying on Bath to slip to get a home draw.
Bath could quite easily have a clean sweep and if they do a home draw is theirs. Certain to make the play offs.
With their lack of ability to get try BPs (Welsh aside) Leicester probably need to win 4 from 5. Which means beating Northampton at home and either Saracens or Wasps away. Tall order.
Wasps should lose away to Saints but it may not matter because after that their two difficult matches are at home. Should sneak into the play offs.
Sale actually have 5 winnable games and crucially for them 3 are at home. Will need a clean sweep though to make it and Sale just aren't that good. Will miss out

So my prediction for the semis:

Northampton v Wasps
Bath v Saracens

Bath to beat Northampton in the final by a late controversial try.

[tigerburnie]

You could also factor in that there's some of those teams still involved in the European competitions, could make wins easier to come by for others. LV final next week, will both sides field their strongest sides available? I bet they will, so Exeter could be coming to us tired and possibly deflated. If Sorries win and they have a Euro game do they not? could be our opportunity to pinch a game. I think there's a sub agenda attached to the visit to Coventry, I expect an all guns blazing in that one, just wish I could get to that one, could be the battle of the season. At the end of the day it's in our hands(and feet), I'm just glad we are still in with a shout after the start we've had, gonna be nail biting time for sure.

[Noddy555]

Sorry Ourla I have to disagree with uou. I think Tigers will make the top 4 but in 3rd or 4th place. My finishing order would be:
1.Saints. 2. Saracens. 3. Bath. 4. Tigers. 5. Exeter. 6. Wasps.

[ourla]

Don't disagree it might be a factor tb. Certainly fatigue should not be an issue for our boys.

I feel the Wasps game will be key because I do expect us to turn over Exeter by hook or by crook and Wasps are the most vulnerable in the play off hunt aside from that. Going to be very difficult for Saints in that last game. By rights they will have secured top spot and against anybody else they would go through the motions in order to avoid injuries and suspensions. But the thought of putting us out of play contention will I suspect mean they come fully loaded.

I'm worried, really worried.

[ourla]

Sorry Ourla I have to disagree with uou. I think Tigers will make the top 4 but in 3rd or 4th place. My finishing order would be:
1.Saints. 2. Saracens. 3. Bath. 4. Tigers. 5. Exeter. 6. Wasps.

Don't be sorry, I hope to be wrong!

[JackFlashJonny]

I completely agree with your predictions Ourla they are that of a realist and whilst I hope they are wrong too we will have to wait and see..

One thing I would say is that this is the most exciting run in to date and leaves every match with something to play for!

I simply cannot fathom who I would most like to win out of the other contenders if it comes to it...

Northampton- Will think they now have a dynasty and be uber arrogant
Bath- Will have successfully bought the title
Saracens- Have no fans and will have bought the title
Exeter- Preferred choice great fans and club but longshot
Wasps- Don't know many Wasps fans so would be easy to stomach

[Dominichi]

i can't say that I can disagree with too many of Ourla's predictions. I have always had in my mind that we'll be ok and finish in the top 4. Now someone has sat down and had a good stab at the possible results I am not so sure.

I suppose the thing we can say is that this season hasn't been predictable so far - so still all to play for - particularly at the Ricoh. I would like to see fans get behind the team and get to the Ricoh to see if we can turn it into Welford Road for the day!

[ourla]

Regular season betting is done with Saints between best priced 1/8 to win it.

Betting to win the Final is more interesting though, with the best odds available being:

Saints 7/4
Saracens 3/1
Bath 7/2
Tigers 8/1
Chiefs 20/1
Wasps 28/1

[Tomvarndell]

ourla

Any chance of you laying me even money we reach the top four?

I will match any stake you want. Let's put some money on your opinion sons. More than happy to meet you kid and leave the stake with any gaffer of any boozer you fancy as you don't know me...come on sons...show some backbone..waiting on you bottling it.

[ourla]

ourla

Any chance of you laying me even money we reach the top four?

I will match any stake you want. Let's put some money on your opinion sons. More than happy to meet you kid and leave the stake with any gaffer of any boozer you fancy as you don't know me...come on sons...show some backbone..waiting on you bottling it.

Here's the deal.. £30 to the Matt Hampson Trust.. whoever is right.

Evidence of donation to be put on the internet and linked on this forum.

[Tomvarndell]

Ok bud. Although you'll have to talk me thru the process if I lose the bet.

[covrich]

Tigers and Wasps have very similar fixtures

Away to Sarries will be very tough and away to Wasps will be too.

I think 4th will be between us and Wasps.. So I know "sacre bleu!!" Saints win will very much aid us next Friday.

Lets hope Exeter are a bit hungover.. funny didn't we play them last year after they won it?? I remember Mulipola smashing his way to the try line

[Iain]

Tigers and Wasps have very similar fixtures

Away to Sarries will be very tough and away to Wasps will be too.

I think 4th will be between us and Wasps.. So I know "sacre bleu!!" Saints win will very much aid us next Friday.

Lets hope Exeter are a bit hungover.. funny didn't we play them last year after they won it?? I remember Mulipola smashing his way to the try line

My hope for the Saracens game is that it comes only six days after their quarter final with Racing Metro. Their game against us may be a little after the Lord Mayor's Show, or they may be coming back rattled after a bruising encounter.... any which way that is a distracting factor for them whereas we will be fresh and rested after a week off.

I hope so anyway as I'm going to it having endured being there to see our backsides served to us before Christmas last season. It better be warmer and drier too!!

[ourla]

Games this week:

A biggy on Friday with Saints at home to Wasps. A Saints win and they will all but seal top spot and a plum home draw. Wasps though could find themselves detached and with a lot to do if they lose. Clearly a Wasps win will turn everything upside down. Above all else that would be severe dent to Saints confidence. I can't see anything other than a Saints win personally.

On Saturday there is:

Tigers v Chiefs - no write up required - It's MASSIVE
Irish v Newcastle - a virtual dead rubber
Sarries v Quins - could be more interesting than you'd expect

And on Sunday:

Sale v Gloucester - playing for an ERC play off place
Welsh v Bath - a walkover

Let's see how the table looks come Sunday night.

[Iain]

If we accept that Saints look shoe-ins for top spot.... dare I say this....

*says a few hail Mary's*

Come....on...you.... Saints...?

*gargles TCP*