Mini review and look forward

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ourla
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Mini review and look forward

Post by ourla »

Now we are at out of the ERC time to take stock...

Review: Looking at all competitions our home has been very solid, even if not particularly spectacular. And we've faced some good teams. The away form has been poor winning 4 from 11. Though it could be argued that against in form teams like Bath, Toulon and Northampton defeats are acceptable/not surpising. On the happy clapper side you'd say a couple of exceptions aside (Irish in the Prem, Scarlets in the ERC) the results have been pretty good given the injuries in the squad. On the more realistic/pessimistic side you'd point to victories being ground out rather than being imperious. And that the team is just treading water. I think we can all agree it has been OK at best but definitely falling short in terms of what we would expect, injuries or no injuries. It's then down to how positive or negative a spin you want to point on it. Straight list of results chronilogically split home and away.

Home:

Newcastle Falcons WON 36-17 (PREM)
London Irish LOST 19-22 (PREM)
Harlequins WON 22-16 (PREM)
Ulster WON 25-18 (ERC)
Sale Sharks WON 29-13 (LV)
Saracens DREW 21-21 (PREM)
Wasps WON 18-16 (PREM)
Toulon WON 25-21 (ERC)
Bath WON 17-8 (PREM)
Scarlets WON 40-23 (ERC)

Away
Exeter Chiefs WON 24-20 (PREM)
Bath LOST 0-45 (PREM)
Gloucester LOST 16-33 (PREM)
Scarlets LOST 3-15 (ERC)
London Irish WON 17-16 (LV)
London Welsh WON 26-5 (PREM)
Toulon LOST 8-23 (ERC)
Northampton LOST 19-23 (PREM)
Sale Sharks WON 32-30 (PREM)
Harlequins LOST 12-32 (PREM)
Ulster LOST 7-26 (PREM)


Looking forward: We have 9 Prem matches left. 5 at home and 4 away. Given our form that is a small plus. The two teams we've already played twice are Bath and Harlequins. We still have to play Saints at home and Sarries away. On paper the next few games have the potential for us to put a winning run together, get us firmly entrenched in the play off positions and build fitness, confidence for the tougher finish to the season. London Welsh will provide some respite before we shape up to Wasps (away) and Northampton (home) to finish. In an ideal world a play off place would be secured before that finale against Saints. If we needed to beat them to guarantee a play off place I fear Saints would put it all in regardless of their own position. And the pressure on some of our players may be too much too bear. But looking that far forward is not a great idea right now.

List of fixtures to be played:

Home:

Northampton (LV)
Gloucester (PREM)
Sale Sharks (PREM)
Exeter (PREM)
London Welsh (PREM)
Northampton (PREM)


Away:

Cardiff Blues (LV)
London Irish (PREM)
Newcastle (PREM)
Saracens (PREM)
Wasps (PREM)

I would expect us to win all those home games aside from Saints. I would expect us to be able to enough against Irish and Falcons though neither will be easy for us. In all probability we will lose at Sarries. Wasps and Saints are the clinchers. At the moment I would expect us to lose both. However, those matches are well over 3 months away. Although it's a hard to see much changing in broad terms between now and then there is some potential for some key players to either come back, or to hit form by then. Yes, I am think Manu. But I am also thinking about Slater, how bad is Parlings knee, can Croft get back to his best, maybe Loamanu can come into the reckoning. Can we get Cole and Logo firing on all cycliners. So the immediate future for me is try and win those next 4/5 Prem fixtures and then reset for the run in.

If we fail to reach the play offs there is no doubt in my mind Cockerills position would be in jeopardy. But that discussion has been had in the other thread and I think when that happens is the time to discuss that. This thread is really about reflecting on our results so far and what we might be able to achieve going forward.
ourla
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Re: Mini review and look forward

Post by ourla »

Nobody else have a view on our remaining games?

Roly stated in another thread he thinks we will win 4 of our remaining 9 Prem games.
kingol22
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Re: Mini review and look forward

Post by kingol22 »

I think we can win all of our remaining home games, Northampton is a long way off and we could well look like a different team by then. It needs to start with wins in the LV to build momentum and then a win away to London Irish, If we can get a good win away from home then we can definitely make the play offs.

The only issue is that we would not fare too well away from home in a semi final, but a lot can change between now and then. The players in our team have won in the past and they know how to, we have to have faith that they can turn it around. Or at least give everything to turn it around and give us some entertainment in the process.
Iain
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Re: Mini review and look forward

Post by Iain »

We play Sarries just after they have played a potentially bruising quarter final.

All our home games are winnable. We should always be favourites at home.
With a bit of momentum, there's no reason why we couldn't win our away games. Sarries after their quarter final. Wasps at the back end of the season when everything is up in the air.... why not?
Roly
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Re: Mini review and look forward

Post by Roly »

Iain wrote:We play Sarries just after they have played a potentially bruising quarter final.

All our home games are winnable. We should always be favourites at home.
With a bit of momentum, there's no reason why we couldn't win our away games. Sarries after their quarter final. Wasps at the back end of the season when everything is up in the air.... why not?
And there's the rub, there's no momentum and no tangible sign of any either.

The performances are so inconsistent, nothing should lead us to believe Tigers are favourites at home (London Irish anyone?) and away matches have attracted a 50% win rate (approximately).

There aren't any easy matches for Tigers this season, they must fight hard for every one - Jesus, they only just put a winning BP on London Welsh, only one other team has beated LW less convincingly - yep, London Irish.

6 wins is doable, but 4 or 5 is more realistic.
“It is no use saying, ‘We are doing our best.’ You have got to succeed in doing what is necessary.” Sir Winston Churchill.
Iain
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Re: Mini review and look forward

Post by Iain »

Roly wrote:
Iain wrote:We play Sarries just after they have played a potentially bruising quarter final.

All our home games are winnable. We should always be favourites at home.
With a bit of momentum, there's no reason why we couldn't win our away games. Sarries after their quarter final. Wasps at the back end of the season when everything is up in the air.... why not?
And there's the rub, there's no momentum and no tangible sign of any either.

The performances are so inconsistent, nothing should lead us to believe Tigers are favourites at home (London Irish anyone?) and away matches have attracted a 50% win rate (approximately).

There aren't any easy matches for Tigers this season, they must fight hard for every one - Jesus, they only just put a winning BP on London Welsh, only one other team has beated LW less convincingly - yep, London Irish.

6 wins is doable, but 4 or 5 is more realistic.
I saw momentum as Wasps and Saints are our final two games. It isn't inconceivable that we win all games up to then. If we do, we go at them with confidence.

Come on, we've had an end to the season like this before in 2012 after a worse start. Winning at Quins that season should have been a ridiculous suggestion earlier on in the season but we blew them away.

We have done this several times. Average season up til about January / February then somehow pull out all the stops and go on a mad run to the end of the season.

No reason why not, and actually quite a friendly fixture list to give us that momentum. Not easy, but no game is any more.

Though if you are predicting 4 out of 9 wins with that fixture list then you're probably not going to be for turning are you?
Flash
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Re: Mini review and look forward

Post by Flash »

On current form you'd still expect 6-7 wins. A run of bad weather with a few trudging forward dominating wins to bring confidence for an end of season run of good form.
Roly
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Re: Mini review and look forward

Post by Roly »

"Though if you are predicting 4 out of 9 wins with that fixture list then you're probably not going to be for turning are you?"

Well, i'd be more than happy to be proved wrong. However, I wont be counting my chickens until they've hatched.
“It is no use saying, ‘We are doing our best.’ You have got to succeed in doing what is necessary.” Sir Winston Churchill.
jack
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Re: Mini review and look forward

Post by jack »

Not much to disagree with there Ourla. Momentum? Got to establish some sometime!
Tigers - true Champions!
kend
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Re: Mini review and look forward

Post by kend »

It's an interesting season - 5 points currently cover 3rd to 8th in the league. At the bottom Welsh are done for, so Irish and Newcastle can play with complete abandon with no risk (or expectation) at all. That will make them quite hard to play against. Newcastle pushed Sarries and Saints and could well turn someone over in the coming weeks.

My guess is, to be sure of a top six place, Tigers need 55 points plus. For a top four it's 65 plus.

Pragmatically, in the present circumstance, I can see 5 'should win' games (3 to 4 at home, 1 to 2 away). They need to find an another one for a top six?

In honesty Tigers need a real slice of luck with injuries, both in terms of returners and new ones. Recent games have taken out Cole, Thorn and Parling. Kitch and Croft are likely to feature in the six nations which adds a further level of risk in an area we really can't afford. Additionally the probability of Manu returning before September can't be more than 50%. They really do need some good fortune.

So IMHO top six is achievable, top four.....
4071
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Re: Mini review and look forward

Post by 4071 »

Roly wrote: The performances are so inconsistent, nothing should lead us to believe Tigers are favourites at home (London Irish anyone?) and away matches have attracted a 50% win rate (approximately)..
Nothing should lead us to believe Tigers are favourites at home?

So - all things being equal - if you see nothing to suggest that Tigers are favourites at home, then we should have a 50% win rate at Welford Road this season?

How close to a 50% win rate are we...?

WON v Newcastle (100%)
LOST v London Irish (50%)
WON v Quins (67%)
WON v Ulster (75%)
WON v Sale (LV) (80%)
DREW v Saracens (67% - I'm even fiddling the stats in your favour here)
WON v Wasps (71%)
WON v Toulon (75%)
WON v Bath (78%)
WON v Scarlets (80%)

Not very close to 50% at all.


Come on - I can mong doom with the best of them, but if you don't think that Tigers are always favourites at home then you are being ridiculous. Either we've had a series of one-off fluky wins to skew the stats, or the London Irish result was a one-off and hardly something around which you can build a hypothesis.
The Boy Dave
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Re: Mini review and look forward

Post by The Boy Dave »

At the beginning of the season the top 2 should be the target, that looks out of reach now, a top 4 place is a must in my view.
I think that Tigers are in quite a good position now for a top 4 place.
Slater and Manu will likely be missing for the run in but if Tigers canno't make top 4 because two players are missing then that would be a joke, get these back for the last month or knock-out stages and anything is then possible.
It would be good to take points off Saracens, Wasps, Exeter and Sale and try and keep Gloucester quiet.
Saracens could yet slide down.
I would expect the job will be done before if we complete the above against those sides but it could yet go down to the final weekend.
Cheery chappy
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