Is a home semi final out of the question?

[AliB]

I'm talking about the Aviva Premiership here not the Heineken Cup!

I had written off our chances of getting a home semi, and was just hoping we could get into the playoffs. I had a look at the table as it stands and the games we have left and I think there is a tiny glimmer of hope!

Please excuse this post for being a tad optimistic but I have tried to base it on some objective (ish) predictions.

Sarries will top the table, they have a fairly easy run in, with the tough games (Quins and Saints) being at home. They should finish on something like 82pts - well done to them.

I think we can secure 23pts in the next six games (Exeter-5, Saints-4, Wasps-5, Quins-1, Sale-4, Sarries-4. That would leave us on 72 pts. We are playing well, Manu looks on good form and we have key players coming back from injury and other key players like Ben Youngs coming back to form. Also Sarries might rest a lot of players for the last game of the season having already secured a home semi meaning that we might even get 5 points against them?

Saints have a history of choking, and I think even with the return of their internationals they will do the same in the run in. They also have a difficult last six games, with tough away games (Bath, Sarries and Sale). I think Saints will only get 7 pts from their remaining games (Sale-1, Leicester-0, Sarries-0, Irish-1, Bath-1, Wasps-4. This would leave them on 71 pts in third place!

I hope I got my sums right and feel free to shoot me down if you think I am being too one-eyed!

[Bunchy]

If you think they will get that small number of points against Sarries, Sale and us, you have to wonder on what basis you think we will do better vs Sarries and Sale based on the season so far.....

I would love to be proved wrong, but I think you may need to take more water with it

[Bill W (2)]

AliB

KEEP THE FAITH!

[AliB]

I most certainly will Keep the Faith!

Bunchy - I think we will do better vs Sarries because Sarries will probably put out a second team when we play them as they will already be top and so be resting players for their home semi final.

I think we will do better against Sale because when we play them they will have already secured a top six place so not have much to play for so be ripe for the taking!

[Bill W (2)]

I most certainly will Keep the Faith!

!

Good Man, or Lass whichever is appropriate!

[Noddy555]

For AliB. Yes my friend we may still struggle to reach the final 4 nevermind the top 2. Saints and Sarries will occupy those 2 berths for sure but in which order is yet tbd. Sundays result against the Chiefs will go a long way in deciding the
third and fourth places. A win and it's almost certain to be ourselves & Bath, but you can't discount Quins, they are a good team when they get their England players back.

[RagingBull]

Just FYI the England starting players aren't available for clubs this weekend (I think)

[ourla]

Have to say I agree with xxx that finishing top four is more of a worry than finishing top two. We don't play a team in the bottom 4 again this season. Every game is going to be a tough one against opposition that have something to play for. And despite us improving and getting players back there is no guarantee they will gel back together quickly. In the middle of that we could get beat up at Clermont. I do have faith, however, that we will do enough to make top 4. My predictions are we will beat Exeter, Wasps and Sale. Northampton we will definitely lose. And I think we will sneak a win against either Quins or Sarries. So win 4 lose 2. With perhaps 2 or 3 BPs along the way. Clearly if we can beat Sale and Quins that should clinch it.

Caveat to all that: we are capable of beating Saints, Sarries, winning all 6. It would not be a total surprise if that happened. Or indeed it's possible we lost to say Sale and beat Saints. Things rarely pan out exactly as you think. So, no, nothing is out of the question. But realistically a home semi is very doubtful and at this stage we should be taking it game by game and thinking more about finishing top 4.

Another thing to note is that the result of the Clermont game could have an influence on several counts... how well we play, how the playes come out of it, whether we win or lose. I would so like us to progress in the HC. If we are, as everbody supposes, getting stronger again now. it could be a great opportunity.

For sure the games are just going to get bigger and bigger in the coming weeks.

[kingol22]

This is the time of the season when we come to the fore and I expect us to do the same this season. I predict us to go unbeaten in the league for the rest of the season finishing on 76 points, whether or not this will be enough for a home semi is tough to tell but I doubt it will be.

[Johndudey]

I want to be optimistic for sure but I don't think Saints will walk away from us with 0 points. I think it'll be close, and whoever loses will probably get a losing point but I really don't think we'll smash them.

[Downsouth]

I know going to Franklins gardens won't be easy, but I would prefer that to playing on the plastic at Saracens - so if Sarries finish top, we need to be at least third. We could then have a final against Sarries at Twickers after a massive downpour - with Sarries forgetting what mud looks like, keep the ball for 80 mins and blow them away. If we did get second, it would be because we have been superb and Saints have faded - or both - giving us a great chance of victory

[amazing tiger]

you cant rule anything out this season its been such a tight one.

[Old Hob]

I really, really want us to appear in 10 consecutive finals which would be an astonishing achievement in any professional sport. This team still needs to gel, however. Maybe now we/they know who's leaving, any dissatisfaction/dressing room issues can be set aside and the stayers can become players.

[Soggypitch]

I really, really want us to appear in 10 consecutive finals which would be an astonishing achievement in any professional sport. This team still needs to gel, however. Maybe now we/they know who's leaving, any dissatisfaction/dressing room issues can be set aside and the stayers can become players.

I agree but we're going to have to do it the hard way this year and win an away semi final I'm afraid.

Working in Northampton as I do, I'm pleased to report that the Saints supporters are already dreading playing us in the semi...

[tigerburnie]

Winning is a habit and we are starting to build that habit now, the next game is vital for our aspirations to get to the final, home win is not a given recently, but teams still come to Welford Road with trepidation.One game at a time is an old cliche, but it really does apply now, we can't be distracted by looking ahead, win on Sunday and everything will look a whole lot easier. I will wait for the team sheet before making any predictions.