ERC Q-F combinations

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rdracup
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ERC Q-F combinations

Post by rdracup » Sun Jan 16, 2011 12:25 pm

Looking at the tables I believe the following - but maybe I have it wrong.

The working assumptions has to be a 5 point win against Treviso. Thats no disrespect to Treviso - just makes the combinations easier. So with 22 points

1 if we are pool winners we are very likley to have home quarter. 3 Pools have maximum of 22 point winners - us + P3 and P4. Theoretically Toulon could get to 23 but they would have to take 2 try BP's in last 2 games including Munster today and away to Ospreys. The best one will be decided on Tries scored. We will be 20 plus tries - all others are on 12 or less today after 5 games. (Toulon on 9 after 4). This also assumes P1/2 and 6 ie Leinster; Saints; and Toulouse/Wasps win their groups with more than 22 points which is not a given. Therefore 99.99% certain of home qtr if we are pool winners.

2 If we are not pool winners then only 3 pools can produce a 22 point or better runner up. Ours + P4 and P6. If Ulster and Biarritz both get BP wins then runner up will be on 22. If they don't then runner up is on 21 or less, and we would therefore qualify. If they do Ulster are runners up - head to head record with Biarritz - and will have to score 11 tries plus any we make over the 20 tries to be above us. They are away to Aironi. If that happens P6 Toulose/Wasps is key - but here it would be some strange results to put Ulster and Wasps/Toulose through as runners up. Further we will know the Ulster result before we play!

Thus, though not mathematically true we can look forward to qualifying. Come on Scarlets you can do it.

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Re: ERC Q-F combinations

Post by Rozza » Sun Jan 16, 2011 1:58 pm

It would also help if Glasgow could beat Wasps.

MJ Chairman
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Re: ERC Q-F combinations

Post by MJ Chairman » Sun Jan 16, 2011 2:22 pm

Rozza wrote:It would also help if Glasgow could beat Wasps.
Which they are currently doing :smt023

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Re: ERC Q-F combinations

Post by Darc Tiger » Sun Jan 16, 2011 3:40 pm

Who do we want to win the current matches?

Toulon without a TBP and London Irish?

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Re: ERC Q-F combinations

Post by crateman » Sun Jan 16, 2011 4:02 pm

Rozza wrote:
It would also help if Glasgow could beat Wasps.



MJ Chairmad wrote:
Which they are currently doing :smt023



Which they have done! 20 - 10, so no LBP. Shame.

rdracup
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Re: ERC Q-F combinations

Post by rdracup » Sun Jan 16, 2011 4:20 pm

Might have been better to post combinations later... but with Wasps losing then we know a BP win ... maybe just a win...will be enough next week ... no ifs or buts...

Always want to see Munster play but if Toulon win without a BP that's fine for us

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Re: ERC Q-F combinations

Post by Darc Tiger » Sun Jan 16, 2011 4:53 pm

Toulon 32-16 Munster (No TBP)
L. Irish 24-12 Ospreys

At the end of round 5:

Toulouse 21
Northampton 21
Leinster 19
Perpignan 17
Biarritz 17
Toulon 17
Leicester 17
Ulster 17

If we top the group it would likely put us into 4th place at least, unless some teams score a serious amount of tries. That would probably give us Biarritz, Toulon or Ulster at home.

If we finish as a runner up, it will most likely be 7th spot due to our tries scored. We will likely face a tough trip to Toulouse or Northampton.

We really need a 5 pointer next week, and Perpignan to only get a 4 pointer or worse!

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Re: ERC Q-F combinations

Post by Stu_F » Sun Jan 16, 2011 5:16 pm

Haven't Northampton said that they will play a quarter final at Milton Keynes?

I think they may change their minds, especially if they play us.

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Re: ERC Q-F combinations

Post by G.K » Sun Jan 16, 2011 5:25 pm

I think we can beat any of those possibles at WR. Saints also don't worry me as I reckon we can beat them anywhere as long as we can contain their back line. Tolouse away is the one I would really like to avoid as Tigers rarely win in France against top opposition.
Nowadays referees decide matches, players by how much.

Bill W (2)
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Re: ERC Q-F combinations

Post by Bill W (2) » Sun Jan 16, 2011 6:04 pm

So at this range (one round to go) it looks as if the play offs will consist of:

Four French
Two English
Two Irish

No Welsh
No Scots
No Italians
Still keeping the faith!

kingol22
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Re: ERC Q-F combinations

Post by kingol22 » Sun Jan 16, 2011 6:05 pm

Stu_F wrote:Haven't Northampton said that they will play a quarter final at Milton Keynes?

I think they may change their minds, especially if they play us.
That would be an extremely stupid decision. Franklins garden like welford road is a fortress and whilst it doesnt guarantee a win it helps a lot.

rdracup
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Re: ERC Q-F combinations

Post by rdracup » Sun Jan 16, 2011 6:09 pm

If it is Saints away it won't be a FG. ERC rules on ground size and the portion of tickets to away side mean Saints will have to move it. We struggled with this before the new stand - even asking season ticket holders to give up seats .. and ERC are even tighter these days.

I think we are alright if it is at WR as WR has both capacity and unsold seats to be OK.

How wide is the MK pitch???? Mallinder can eat his words before the Twickenham show down.

Personally I would prefer to be away to Saints than in France... assumming we are not group winners

Bill W (2)
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Re: ERC Q-F combinations

Post by Bill W (2) » Sun Jan 16, 2011 6:24 pm

rdracup wrote:Personally I would prefer to be away to Saints than in France... assumming we are not group winners
O ye of little faith.

I would not mind a trip to France providing it was not Toulouse!!

And will welcome all comers to WR!!!!

:smt023 :smt023 :smt023 :smt023
Still keeping the faith!

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Re: ERC Q-F combinations

Post by tigermad » Sun Jan 16, 2011 6:38 pm

Darc Tiger wrote:Toulon 32-16 Munster (No TBP)
L. Irish 24-12 Ospreys

At the end of round 5:

Toulouse 21
Northampton 21
Leinster 19
Perpignan 17
Biarritz 17
Toulon 17
Leicester 17
Ulster 17

If we top the group it would likely put us into 4th place at least, unless some teams score a serious amount of tries. That would probably give us Biarritz, Toulon or Ulster at home.

If we finish as a runner up, it will most likely be 7th spot due to our tries scored. We will likely face a tough trip to Toulouse or Northampton.

We really need a 5 pointer next week, and Perpignan to only get a 4 pointer or worse!
:smt030 :smt030

Ditto Darc Tiger. All Leicester can do is do the business against Treviso and hope that Scarlets have a good game against Perpignan. I think Leicester could well be on their travels even if they get the TBP against Treviso. Anything is possible with one game to go.
Philip J Gray

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Re: ERC Q-F combinations

Post by Jay C » Sun Jan 16, 2011 6:40 pm

Bill W (2) wrote:So at this range (one round to go) it looks as if the play offs will consist of:

Four French
Two English
Two Irish

No Welsh
No Scots
No Italians
No surprises either

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