Heineken Cup 2010/2011

[dailywaffle]

The probability of drawing Ospreys dropped from 50% to 37.5%* when Cardiff won the Amlin, so we probably won't get them.

However, its a very significant possibility.


*Depending on the draw format.

[dailywaffle]

In respect of the pool that will contain two French teams, it will definitely contain Racing Metro as they are the weakest ranked French side. They can't be drawn with Toulon or Castres as these two sides are in the same group of seeds. They can be drawn with any of the other four French sides though.

All pools must contain one team from each group of seedings and may not contain teams from the same country (with the exception of Racing Metro) and this means that each pool will have one English team and at least one French side. For example Leicester could draw a pool containing Ospreys, Perpignan and Racing Metro.

From 2nd seeds - Leicester will draw one of Clermont, Ospreys or Scarlets.
From 3rd seeds - Leicester can draw Perpignan, UIster, Glasgow or Edinburgh.*
From 4th seeds - Leicester can draw any team.*

* depending on who they draw from the 2nd and 3rd seeds

Expanding on that, and assuming that the draw format remains unaltered from the last two seasons:

Leicester are more likely to draw Ospreys or Scarlets than ASM.
If we draw a Welsh tier 2 team, we are more likely to draw USAP than any other tier 3 team.
If we draw ASM, we will draw one of Ulster, Edinburgh or Glasgow.
If we draw USAP, the tier 4 team can only be one of Racing Metro or an Italian team.
We can only draw Toulon (or Castres) if we draw the following combination:
1. Leicester
2. Ospreys / Scarlets
3. Ulster / Edinburgh / Glasgow

Based on form, the easiest possible draw appears to be:
1. Leicester
2. Scarlets
3. Ulster
4. Castres

Statistically, the most likely draw appears to be:
1. Leicester
2. Ospreys or Scarlets
3. USAP
4. Racing Metro or Treviso / Aironi

[dailywaffle]

Do we know the date of the draw yet?

I understand that it will be on 8th June.

[GT1]

Thanks Daily.

[kingol22]

wouldnt mind a pool of
scarlets
edinburgh
toulon.